Monday, December 13, 2010

12-13 other indicators

As you know I primarily use cycles in my analysis.  That doesn't mean I ignore other disciplines, just it is not my primary focus.  So let's look at some other indicators.

I.   There is a large inverted H&S pattern.  The pattern has fulfilled its upside projection for the right shoulder and should no longer offer upside support.

II. There is a time based Fibonacci (see previous post which referenced David Knox Barker) that is now complete.   It is 21 months since Mar 9, 2009 low and 21 is a Fibonacci number (Fibonacci series 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, etc).

III. There is a price based Fibonacci  (.618 retrace of top to bottom on Mar. 9) at 1246 that was fulfilled today.

IV. CPC and CPCE (call/put ratios) are at extreme bearish levels. See chart 1.2:
V.  Sentiment levels have become extremely biased to the bullish side (contrarian indicator).  "Dumb" money measurement at very high levels (bearish).  The VIX (yes it is a sentiment indicator) is near April lows.

VI. Very extreme reading on the ARMS (TRIN) indicator over the past 10 days. See chart 1.2:

You get the idea.  Combine this with cycle analysis indicating an imminent turn and you have to believe the long side has become extremely risky (see weekend post).

GL traders.

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