12-01 mid-week cycle update

Doesn't look like we break below 1173 as I thought we might (see week end post). Also, I doubt we end lower for the week as I opined over the week end. Today's action should have gotten your attention. It got mine.

We have had cycle after cycle bottom over the past 2 weeks and turn up (22 day cycle, 34 day cycle). 45 day cycle is up for 2-3 more days before it tops.  So these 3 cycles are now up... The 4 month (or 90 trading days) cycle topped and is now down. Given this imbalance of cycles up versus cycles down the next 3-4 days should tilt up at least until the 45 day cycle tops around Dec 6, followed shortly after by the 22 day cycle. After that we will see.

While it is true there are longer cycles down I do not believe that is enough to overcome the shorter cycles for now. Keep in mind even though the longer cycles may have larger amplitudes it is averaged over longer periods. For example let's say the 22 day cycle has an amplitude of 11 SPX points from bottom to top (or top to bottom). A half-cycle (bottom to top or top to bottom) is 11 days for an average impact of 1 point a day. On the other let's say the 24 month cycle has an amplitude of 150 SPX points. A half-cycle is 1 year (about 250 trading days). So the impact is about 6/10 a point per day on average. So the shorter cycle wins as it is 4/10 point stronger per day on average. Hope this makes sense???

Here is how it looks for now: