Next week Monday may be up, after that I expect the 22 day cycle to top and turn down. So overall I expect next week could prove to be a challenge for the bulls. I do not think we break out and go above 1250 S&P (yeah, I know some are suggesting 1280-1300) and could finish down 2% or more based on the expected alignment of cycles next week.
I told you last weekend: "I anticipate we will get new highs. I do not expect the market to continue up as strong as it did Wed-Fri of last week." Check. I told you in my December look ahead: "The market will remain choppy with a downward bias the first 2 weeks of December.". Oops, missed it on the bias (so shoot me). I also said: "The cycles align to the downside and we could get a more substantial sell down the second half of December.". I believe this will be true, time will tell.
Lets review that alignment:
5.5 day cycle down Mon-Wed
22 day cycle topping and down Tue-Fri
45 day cycle down
24 month cycle down until end of Mar
40.68 month cycle down
10 yr cycle down
34 day cycle up
1 year cycle up until late Jan
With this alignment the 5.5 day and 22 day cycles could give us a substantial selloff Tue/Wed. Overall the sum of the cycles I track should provide a down market. Also the "sell" signals have started to appear. Here is the SPX chart:
GL, I hope this provides a supplement to your analysis not the main driver of your trades.
No comments:
Post a Comment