Saturday, October 19, 2013

week of Oct 21, 2013 outlook

I had the market direction correct for the week just ended, but I was not aggressive enough on my upside projections.  We may have seen the top of this 23TD (lunar) cycle as we there was a full moon Oct 18.

Assuming a top we should see 2 weeks down for the 23TD (lunar) cycle into the new moon in early November.  After that we will see as some longer cycles may exert more pressure than they have in the recent past (Wall cycle, 1/3 Kitchin cycle) as they should bottom in early January.

Here is a visual for the next week:

GL traders


  1. Excluding Finance, total earnings growth for the companies that have reported falls in the negative category – down -6.2%. This is weak performance than what we have seen from the same group of companies in Q2 and the 4-quarter average.

    Guidance is uninspiring so Q4 estimates are expected to decline.

  2. @inlet:If you do not see the slightest increase in market will continue until 28 and start going down 29-4nov?

  3. Maybe 1-2 days topping before the SPX starts down as multiple cycles head down into end-of-month or first of November.

  4. Thank U Very Much Inlet.God Bless U

  5. low volatility today has the feel of a topping.

  6. Bit puzzled over the mentions of the moon. Surely full moon 18th/19th and new moon coming next?

  7. oops, corrected. thanks Andrew.


  8. No problems, everything is great:

    1.Global Equity Bubble
    2.Corporate Bond Bubble
    3.Sovereign Bond Bubble
    5.Central Bank Intervention
    6.China Property Bubble
    7.China shadow Banking
    8.Trade Protectionism
    9.US Militarism
    10.Social Security Promises
    11.Pension Promises
    12.European Bank Leverage
    13.European Isolationism
    14.Canadian Housing Prices
    15.Australian Housing Prices

  9. I expected the topping process to take a couple of days - a top by Wednesday, but it is taking longer which leads me to believe we get a right translated cycle (which happens in an up trending market).

  10. Hi Inlet what is a right tranlated cycle?

  11. right translated cycle - top is to the right of mid-cycle (usually up leg is longer than the down leg hence a rising trend). A left translated cycle has a shorter up leg and top is to left of mid-cycle resulting in a down trend usually.