Tuesday, October 1, 2013

Outlook for Oct 2013

New moon Oct 5 and that often marks monthly lows (Friday Oct 4 or Mon Oct 7).  This may be an exception even though there should be some move up into mid-October.  After mid-month there should be substantial downside pressures as  longer cycles have topped and had time to build some downside momentum.  Add to that that the lunar cycle will also have topped by around Oct 18 and turned down.

So if we are to get a 10% or greater pullback in 2013 odds favor that happening after Oct 15.  Most of the downside for longer cycles will happen in the last half of the down leg as the turn down requires the first half of the leg to turn and develop downside momentum.  So if we get the expected down trend well under way by the end of October then it should accelerate in November and December and bottom by around year end.

Here is a visual of the longer term outlook:



  1. Inlet,

    Some are writing that the S&P could finish in the 1850 range by the end of this year.

    Do you see any chance of that in your cycle work?

  2. Doc - so far market playing out much as I laid out at the beginning of the year, so I see nothing in the data to alter my projection of a pullback starting in mid October running into late December. Keep in mind we have a debt ceiling negotiation starting around mid October and this is the "one" that could have a substantial market impact like in 2011.

  3. Doc - take a listen to this interview with Nenner: