Wednesday, December 28, 2011

12-28 sniffing out cycles

From David Knox Barker:

http://www.safehaven.com/article/23793/central-bankers-vs-natural-market-cycles-in-2012
Note the variation in the "quarter wall" cycle which could explain the variation we are seeing in swing trade cycles.  I recently posted suggesting though that we may be looking at a 35TD cycle (as well as a 70TD cycle - half a Wall cycle).  Here is  that interpretation:

Notice the recent suggested top in the 35TD cycle (Dec 23) and the probability of a bottom by mid January (Wall cycle bottom).  GL traders.
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3 comments:

  1. c_kDecember 28, 2011 at 9:47 AM

    Looks like stockstop.org is down ... switching to your chat room effective immediately.

    Will send climacus and angie email to that effect, and tell climacus to send it on to nooner.

    If you have susie's email let her know.

    ReplyDelete
  2. DoctraderDecember 28, 2011 at 2:35 PM

    Inlet,

    These are probably "dumb" comments but forgive me.

    12/24 was a Saturday, so wouldn't the 35TD cycle peak be 12/23? Also, it looks like the lower graph is plotting 12/26 (Monday) and there was no trading that day. Do you plot the weekdays even if there is no trading?

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  3. InletDecember 28, 2011 at 9:41 PM

    Dic - 12/24 my bad - should have said 12/23.

    As to weekends they are not represented on the charts. The longer term chart shows Holidays as blank (not shown on shorter term charts). I try to allow for non-trading weekdays in showing tops and bottoms, but realize there always will be some variability in cycle lengths (see Barkers's table). We have a roadmap here not a GPS. ;>)

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