Tuesday, December 6, 2011

12-07-2011 outlook

How was that for a neutral bias as I opined?  Tested the upper end of the range I suggested, but not the lower end - so shoot me.  Hehehe 

Tomorrow the 20TD cycle is up and should top by day's end (or early Thursday).  The 40TD cycle is up.  The 10TD, 5TD and 2.5TD cycles are down.  No expected news I am aware of that should impact the market - so we will get news or a rumor that will roil the market (that is how it always works isn't it?).

I suspect the bias should be neutral to down tomorrow.  We have had several up/flat days since Nov 28 so we are over due a correction.  Besides we are trading above the level expected based on the 40TD's DPO (140 / 20 = 7 pts a day; 7 x 9 = 63; 1160 + 63 - 1223 expected level) and this will get corrected by moving sideways several days or a correction).

My interpretation of the SPX swing cycles:

GL traders.  Do your own analysis
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8 comments:

  1. shadow7December 7, 2011 at 3:02 AM

    Good job. I don't see us correcting or at least starting the correction until DEC. 9th. This lines up with SPIRALs calendar also. But I think we will have a nice blow-off just prior as always. If that is the case today will be the start of it (blow-off) as we have been trading sideways for 2 days now. Also not the pattern trade has been to buy the close. By my calc we are trading right on the 1:8 still with the bottom price being 1255.

    ReplyDelete
  2. DoctraderDecember 7, 2011 at 8:58 AM

    Interesting day so far. A drop to 1244-45 and now some recovery.

    Some of your cycles will be going up, so perhaps some type of blow-off will occur.

    Inlet, just so you know, Kliguy on the SKF board is advising everyone to "Get Out". He never elaborates as to why.

    So, perhaps if we get a nice POP within the next couple days, a shorting opportunity will set up. I am still waiting for some clarity.

    ReplyDelete
  3. InletDecember 7, 2011 at 9:33 AM

    Doctrader -
    As you know (I assume) Kli is a follower of Kress/Droke. I believe this latest post by Droke may be part of the reason for Kli's expectations:
    http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/clif-droke/2011/12/05/economic-armageddon-2012-or-2013

    enjoy

    ReplyDelete
  4. InletDecember 7, 2011 at 9:37 AM

    Doctrader -

    Judging the impact of the combination of multiple cycles (some up, some down) is always an informed guess. A neutral to down bias seems to be OK so far for the day, but the DOW has now gone green so we may rally some into the 20TD top?

    ReplyDelete
  5. DoctraderDecember 7, 2011 at 10:54 AM

    Inlet,

    That's a good thought about Kress/Droke. I did know that Kliguy is a follower and I would read the articles when Kli would link them.

    I will read the article tonight.

    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  6. shadow7December 7, 2011 at 1:18 PM

    Looks like we started the blow-off top. I'll be getting out of my SPY CALLS and I'll be looking for a short position starting Friday....maybe close of day Thursday.

    ReplyDelete
  7. ThomaschrishanDecember 8, 2011 at 5:40 AM

    This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    ReplyDelete
  8. InletDecember 8, 2011 at 5:54 AM

    Thomas

    Spam comments will be removed. Who decides what is Spam? I do - my blog so I get to decide.

    ReplyDelete

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