12-13-2011 outlook

I opined that we would have a "slight" upward bias today.  Seems the market got drunk on Europe having a plan Friday and the hangover hit over the weekend.  So the market not only was down, but down more than I would have thought likely.  At least I was right about the VIX calming down. 

So we appear to have one cycle  - the 40TD cycle - trying to push up and another cycle - the 20TD cycle - trying to push down.  These cycles seem fairly evenly match.  If I had to judge the advantage at this time it seems the 20TD cycle has a slight advantage as today's low point was less than Thursday's low point and Friday's high point was less than Wednesday's high point.  So the push down seems a bit stronger at this time in the up-down-up-down playing out of this war of the cycles.  Have we seen  the high for this cyclic series?  We may have - time will tell.

So we continue to muddle and today we tested a key FIB at 1228 and moved above that by the close.  So we have the 40TD cycle up and 20TD cycle down.  One day the 40TD seems to dominate, the next day the 20TD seems to dominate.  If this pattern continues tomorrow should be up.   Tomorrow the 10TD cycle should be up, the 5TD cycle down (offsetting).  The 2.5TD cycle tops during the day, so that is fairly neutral also.  Overall the bias appears to be neutral unless one of the longer cycles asserts itself. The market is trading at the level we would expect based on the amplitude of the 40TD cycle.

Here is the SPX swing cycles:

GL traders.  Relax, enjoy the holidays - there is no law that you have to trade every day.