Thursday, December 22, 2011
10-22-2011
It appears that the 20TD cycle bottomed about 2 days earlier than projected. Makes me wonder was this a 17.5-18TD cycle. Here is what I am looking at trying to decide if I need to make changes and if so what.
You opinion, feedback and ideas would be appreciated. Should we be looking for 17.5TD, 35TD, 70TD cycles?
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Some notes:
ReplyDeleteKeystone writes that the markets are often bullish the two days prior to a 3 day holiday (ie. today & tomorrow).
Phil Davis's site has a long term chart of "Global Earnings Revisions" that indicate we could be in for a "horrific market correction". Phil feels we must have QE3 to get things going.
Sorry Inlet, I can't help you with the cycles--you are the expert. But, if you look at your bottom chart of SPX, you can draw channel lines (the lower one would touch the lower points) and you can draw an upper parallel line. These lines would be going UP and we are bouncing off the lower channel. I think at some point, the Feds will announce something (?couple months time frame?), and the S&P will roar past 1300.
Phil Davis writes that he is overall bullish, because he expects the Feds to do something.
http://bit.ly/twvFOP
ReplyDeleteStill upward strength. Next cycle change 23 december
TKX Doctrade and Tom. Nice chart Tom.
ReplyDeleteLDK having another big day. "Da boyz" must be buying.
ReplyDeleteHi Inlet,
ReplyDeleteQuestion regarding your depiction of the 14 and 35 wk cycles above -,according to Hurst I thought the waves in a are phased so that thier troughs are in alignment,, which he terms synchronicity?
Tkx Victory - been a while since I read Hurst. I drew the charts using DPO peaks to position cycle peaks. Since you are reading Hurst - does he mention the possibility the peaks may be in alignment (synched)?
ReplyDeleteHurst says troughs are aligned as opposed to peaks which is why you tend to see rounded tops and spike bottoms.
ReplyDelete'The ratio of average periods of contiguous waves in a nominal wave set is a small, whole number, usually two. This is know as the property of harmonicity.'
'The waves in a set are so phased as to cause wave troughs to occur simultaneously whenever consistent with harmonictity. This property is referred to as synchoronicity.'
Hurst specifically mentions wave sets of which he lists 4, Yearly, Monthly, Weekly, Daily. I'm not sure whether waves in different sets should align at the troughs or not. Seems to me like they would not necessary have to. In your case above however even though one wave set is weekly and the other daily they do appear to be part of the same set since if you convert them both to daily you see the ratio of 2 present (70:35)
...but i'm just being indoctrinated so what do I know?
TKX for the response. I agree in general with cycles synching, but do not deem it an absolute. When facing that decision I try to let the data make the call.
ReplyDeleteIts possible that on the some moment there are different cycles. There a a nominal model we called the Hurst Nominal. Now day's we are more flexible and we accept the existence of different cycles. On the lower frames 15 to 50 minutes is possible to day trade with Auto Trade. Orders automatically send to the floor or places in the book. The program search and find the best possible fit cycle.
ReplyDelete50 Minutes The Bread&Butter Frame: http://bit.ly/u1gmfz
Daily Classic: http://bit.ly/rNyWo9
Projection Box Target: http://bit.ly/s2SRCz
Hurst Phase: http://bit.ly/t6wY6j
Classic Hurst: http://bit.ly/vwWbVM
Next Cycle Turn januari 3 2012