Last week's outlook was pretty much on target as we expected an up week. We expect the move up to continue this week with the 33TD (trading days) cycle topping toward the end of the week. The 11TD cycle should top around the same time. So by the end of the week these cycles should be ready to turn and may lose some momentum by Thur/Fri of the week. Still we should tests the old highs of Feb. 18 and may break them (but not by much). So we may get as high as 1353 or 1354. Note: based on the weakness down into Mar 16 and strength the past 2 weeks I concluded I needed to reposition the Wall cycle to account for this so it has been shifted right by about 17 days.
So I expect we may get some increased volatility by the end of the week as these two cycles (33 and 11 TD) top. So late in the week we may see shorter cycles starting to affect the market movement more and get more of a day trading market for 6-8 trading days.
Here is a visual:
Monday should be an up day as the longer cycles dominate. Also, the 5.6TD cycle is up Monday and the 2.8 day cycle is up part of the day. Possibly - Monday morning we fill the gap down from Feb 22 (1138-1140 approximately), and pull back some in the afternoon. Time will tell.
Here is the shorter cycles:
GL traders. Do your own analysis. Don't forget to start tightening up your stops by mid-week and it may not be prudent to try and continue to buy the dips except for day trading activity.
Very good series!!! I just want to know what happened to the 22TD did it exist, does it exist, or did it just get swallowed up by the 33TD cycle?
ReplyDeleteShadow -
ReplyDeleteOver time the amplitude of a cycle fades and later it will expand again. Last year it seemed that the 22TD cycle and 45TD cycle were prevelant. At least that was my interpretation.
Now it appears those have faded and the 33TD cycle has come to the forefront. IMO one of the trickiest parts of cycle analysis is detecting these changes in a timely manner. I know I have not always done it well, but it is the reason we shoud not presume today is an absolute guide for tomorrow as chit changes.
I would offer an observation that a set of shorter cycles may dominate for 2-3 complete cycles before it fades so we have some guide to be alert for changes in what cycle is dominant after that 2-3 complete cycles of a shorter dominant cycle.
I question the placement of the Wall Cycle that you show bottoming on 3/16. 20 Weeks from the December 1st date would place the 20 Week mark around April 19th. If you go back to July 2 and calc the time between to November 30th you get 152 days. Wall Cycle is 140D/100TD. If you use the 152 Days and add it to the the December 1st date it puts us right at the end of April. Which lines up with the bottom of the 33TD cycle.
ReplyDeleteShadow7 -
ReplyDeleteI encourage you to examine and question everything - do your own analysis. I will examine this, wouldn't be the first time I screwed up on a chart.