comments and the week ahead 04-11-2011

The week played out much as expected - trading in a fairly narrow range.  Never could build enough upside to test February highs (got within 4-5 points).  Never felt sure we could/would tests and break those highs.  If I am right about the 33TD cycle topping we should get a choppy market for the next 3-4 trading days with the shorter cycles providing the action until the 33TD cycle builds some downward momentum.  The 11.2 trading day cycle also topped and should turn and will build downside momentum quicker as it has a shorter turning axis. 

Given this I believe the week even though choppy should develop a downside bias by mid week.  I believe we close the week down 1-1.5% from  Friday's close by next Friday.   Here is a chart:

Based on detrending the 33 day cycle (DPO(17)) it appears we should lose about 45 (3-3.5%) points over the next three weeks giving us a downside target of around 1285.  After that we have the 33TD cycle and 20wk (Wall cycle) up into late into May and that should result in new highs of around 1355.  Time will tell and projections are subject to update as the market plays out.

We start the week with the 20wk (Wall cycle), the 33TD and 11.2TD cycles down.  The 5.2 TD cycle is up for Monday.  The 2.8td cycle starts out as up and tops and turned down by midday.  Best guess is some strength in the early hours, but weakness by the end of the day on Monday.

Here is a visual:

GL traders.  Do your own analysis.  Careful in buying the dips as the trend should now be down.