Wednesday, April 27, 2011

amzn update 04-23

I last commented on AMZN in early April: http://swingcycles.blogspot.com/2011/04/amzn-update-04-04.html .  I said it should move up the first 3 weeks of April and pull back.  It pretty much followed that script, pulled back a bit earlier than expected.

Now AMZN is moving up again and it appears it should continue up for another 6-7 trading days, but a good part of the upside gain may already be in the bag (another 3 points or so of upside?).   Best guess is there is no big surprise or breakout when earnings are reported Tuesday.  I am projecting a top around May 3.

Here is a visual:

GL traders.  Do your own analysis.  Earnings can always surprise - so be careful.  You got to wonder about AMZN "cloud" problems which they have visions of expanding to 50% of their business....

04-27 - earnings miss, revenues looked good.  AMZN has now hit my upside targets and a top looks imminent within 3-4 trading days.
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2 comments:

  1. AnonymousApril 27, 2011 at 8:10 AM

    Inlet you saved me quite a bit of $ as Doug Kass and others were recommending the 180 puts expiring the end of this week. I read your comments a few days ago and decided to stay out and glad I did as they will expire worthless. Keep up the great work. I read you daily:)

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  2. InletApril 27, 2011 at 8:56 AM

    38dd

    I am pleased that it worked out for you. I try not to read Kass (and others) before doing my analysis as I want to analyze the data without a bias. Now I can guarantee not all my predictions will work (BIDU is a recent example, looks like I was early on BIDU and possibly just wrong).

    I find that making daily market calls the most difficult (highest error rate), so that should always be taken with a grain of salt.... and you should trade the market in front of you and use my analysis to help anticipate potential reversals and not as a reason to trade long or short.

    GL

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