Tuesday, November 29, 2011

11-29-2011 outlook

I mentioned in my last outlook that markets never go in one direction for extended periods (more than a few days).  The market had over shot to the downside and we got an extreme pop to the upside.  This did a lot to correct the market level and should allow the market/cycles to complete their bottoming process by the end of the week.  It appears that process should complete by Friday Dec 2.  As I mentioned - in the near term we had limited downside potential to fulfill that bottom.   NOTE: my estimate is the 20 week Wall cycle should not bottom until Dec 9 or a little later and could result in a lower low and will at least retard any upside the first full week of December.

The 22.5TD cycle (and related shorter cycles) should bottom this week.  The bias should remain to the downside, but the up cycles and downside continue to offset each other today.  So any move up or down should be relatively small (+/- 10 points) IMO.

Here is the SPX swing cycles (my interpretation):
 

GL traders.  Do your own analysis, I could be wrong.

7 comments:

  1. It will be interesting to see how this week plays out.

    Phil Davis felt that the rally was fake & went back into cash.

    Keystone wrote about Gold today & still predicts a fall to the 1500 range.
    Keystone also mention something that I have been thinking about--that is, although "Black Friday/CyberMonday" was reported to be great, have retailers actually made any profits? If you "give the stuff away at bargain prices, what are your margins"??
    I wonder if at some point, poor margins will be announced by the MSM.

    We will see.

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  2. I see SP making it back to 1218 by December 9th. At that point a battle will ensue and it could get real choppy at that point because this is the mean between where the Bottom GANN Line coming up at 1:8 (Oct. 4 - 1233) will be meeting up with the 1:4 (Oct. 27) coming down. Of course by that date this number would need to be lowered to maybe 1209....hmmmm....

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  3. Two charts:
    http://tinypic.com/r/358qeeu/5
    http://tinypic.com/r/2cmx9nr/5

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  4. Inlet - at one time you had the 22.5 TD bottoming on the 24/25th? You don't think this still holds up?

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  5. Shadow7 - adjust that 22.5 bottom to just after the first of the year - should top around Dec 19-20.

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