Thursday, November 17, 2011

11-18-2011 outlook

Last evening I suggested we would see some downside today, even substantial downside: "So I conclude we could have a flat day, but expect some (maybe more than some) downside. ".  Today did a lot to bring the S&P level more in line with what would be expected if we met the daily average decline for the 34TD cycle (6 x 15 down days = -90 points or S&P of ~ 1602). 

We still have some downside potential if the 34TD cycle is to meet its projected amplitude on the downside - say under 1200.  The 22TD cycle is also down and seems to be gaining dominance.  The 2.8TD cycle has turned up - so the sum of the DPOs is up.  Tomorrow is also OPEX so we could see the market on both sides of unchanged and I would not be surprised to see 1200 low and 1230 high tomorrow (close red?). Might be a good day for a day trade or two?

Here is the SPX swing cycles (my interpretation):

GL traders.  Do your own analysis and be careful.


  1. Go Hokies. Shadow - those SPY puts should have worked out for you today.

  2. Inlet,
    I spent a lot of time going over various charts, and I just don't see anything I like.

    Phil Davis wrote today that he went back into cash yesterday. Keystone feels the markets need to sell off more. Looks like we are going to open green. Your charts show a mix of up & down cycles.

    I spent some time looking at SLW and it looks like it has trading down to a lower trend line. But, I just don't think the RSI, MACD, etc are set up yet for a run.

    The articles about the European crisis are just plain scary. MF Global's collapse has exposed major corruption. Some are writing that the futures & options markets are poised to completely collapse. Some are writing that the metal prices are being held down so all of the gold in Italy can be looted. Just amazing stuff and you just don't know what to believe.

    I might buy some more 1964 Kennedy half dollars. At least that is something tangible.