Thursday, November 10, 2011

11-11-2011 outlook

Today's projection was close:  "Based on this tomorrow is projected to be up almost 12 points ".  It is good to get it right some of the time.

As we discussed yesterday taking a longer view using the 34TD cycle is now down 10 days.  That should equate to 62.5 points off the top which would put the S&P around 1230.  Given the influence of other cycles it is expected that average results will close above (today) and below (yesterday) but the sum of the daily averages of the 34TD cycle (10 x 6.25) will be achieved over time.  By close tomorrow that cumulative average will be -68.5 points which is around 1223.5.  So we have the potential of a fairly large down move over the next couple of days if the 34TD average is to be honored.  It could be tomorrow, but my guess would be on Monday.  So keep this in mind in regards to my daily projections.

The 34TD cycle is down (-6.25 pts), the 11.2TD cycle is down (-14 pts) for a total of -20.25 points.  The  22TD cycle is up (+9 pts).  The 5.6TD cycle tops tomorrow and I estimate will contribute  +4 points.  The 2.8TD cycle also tops and should contribute about +2 points.  This is a total of +15 points.  The difference is a projection of down 5.25 points....  Of course, keep in mind we have the potential of a larger down day  (over 15 points) when the 34TD average is honored..  So overall we could see -20 points or more tomorrow (1219 area) if the 34TD average is achieved.

Here is the SPX swing cycles (my interpretation): 

GL traders.  Do your own analysis


  1. Alright a fellow Hokie...Cool!!! I'm 1995 Alum.

    I got a calc saying we pop up at the open to 1250 (1249.03) and then begin a sell down starting @ 10:09 am as we are finishing out the Nov1st BULL SQUARE. I figure we should drop down to the Oct 27th 1x4 GANN BEAR SQUARE Angle pretty soon around 1190-1196....using the Oct 27th high as the anchor point.

  2. Happy 11/11/11 everyone.

    Looks like we open with a gap up.

    Phil Davis is overall bullish on US equities and quoted Doug Kass who implied the US is the best looking house in a bad neighborhood.

    I am hoping we have a selloff and I think 1190-1196 would be great. Then we could load up to the long side. Typically, there should be a Christmas Rally. Let's be patient.

  3. Looks like today is going to be a complete miss for my analysis. We will see - anything can happen in this market.

    Shadow - dirty class of '69.... Hehehehe

  4. Inlet,

    You don't know. You could still be right.

    Keystone feels that the Nas should lead, but it is the DOW that is leading. So, could be a false breakout.

    Too busy for me at work, but I have been thinking of taking a chance with some DIA puts.