Saturday, November 12, 2011

11-12 Inventory topping?

Wholesale inventory showed a slight lag recently.  As sales stagnate inventory will be reduced.

Why should you care?  The inventory cycle is an economic cycle.  But the Kitchin stock cycle is based on the inventory cycle.  This cycle normally precedes the inventory by 3 or so months  (for example the stock market cycle bottomed in March 2009 and the inventory cycle did not bottom until around May in 2009). 

The Kitchin averages about 42 months and is encompasses 9 Wall cycles (20 weeks/100TDs).  The Kitchin cycle has topped some months ago (so if it precedes the inventory cycle we would expect a top in the inventory cycle).  At 42 months the Kitchin should bottom around Aug/Sep of 2012.

Here is the Kitchin cycle: 

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