Monday, August 29, 2011

The week of 08-29-2011 outlook

As mentioned in my 08-29 outlook the 2.8TD and 5.6TD cycles bottom and turn up today.  That is somewhat supportive of the 22TD cycle which is up this week.  The 11.2TD cycle and 34TD cycles are down.  So into Wednesday we have somewhat an up side bias from this alignment.  This gives us a shot at testing the old 1208 high.  If we break above 1208 then we may see 1228 (but I consider that some what a long shot).

The 20 week (Wall) cycle is up, but the 67TD (65-70)  is down.  The 34TD cycle is topping and turning down, so by Wednesday this is combined with the 5.8TD cycle topping. By late week we should see a downside bias. 

In summary up side bias into Wednesday and downside bias the last half of the week.  Overall it probably gives us a flattish week.  By next week the 22TD tops and we have multiple cycles heading for bottoms by mid September (I will try to provide a monthly outlook soon).

Here is the SPX intermediate length cycles:

Gl traders - have a profitable week.

I use cycles as a primary tool, but I do look at other things.  The TRIX is a smoothed EMA and crossovers can offer some hints at key points.  Also the CCI at extremes (+125-150 sell?  -125 or less buy?) can often provide clues.  Here is a chart showing this:

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