Thursday, August 11, 2011

Outlook for the rest of 2011

We should currently be setting a bottom.  It that works out there should be a bit of a rally going forward as the 9 month and 3 year cycle turn.  Of course the middle of each month should be the bottom of the 22TD cycle.  So we rally a bit, pull back and then rally modestly for a couple of weeks into late August.  By mid September though we probably see lower lows as the 22TD, 34TD and 67TD (65-70TDs) cycles bottom together. 
After mid September the 20 week, 9 month  cycles are  gaining a bit of up side momentum.  The cycles that bottomed turn up.  So we should rally into the first of November (keep in mind the 22TD cycle will provide some weakness mid month October, but it may be muted as the 20 week cycle should top around Oct 19-20.  By the first of November we should have the 22TD and 67TD cycle topping together (this may be the high for the remainder of the year).

As we move into December we have the 22TD, 34TD and 67TD cycles bottoming around Dec 16.  The 20 week cycle should bottom around December  26 as the 9 month cycle tops (so I expect these to offset to a large extent).

Here are a couple of charts showing the referenced cycles and how they are expected to align for the remainder of the year:

GL traders.  As always do your own analysis, use this as a supplement/check of your analysis.

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