Tuesday, August 23, 2011

comments and outlook for 08-23-2011

The ECRI's WLI (Weekly Leading Indicator) has gone negative.  Most of the time once this happens we get an official recession.  Not much up side at the end of the day.  Still the market seemed to want to rally.  So the pressure is building underneath the market IMO.  We are overdue a substantial pop.  Could it be today?

Here is the SPX:

GL traders.  Be careful - bears are nearby.


  1. Inlet - I still think there is something heavier holding us down....normally we would be moving hard up...but we are giving every gain back....something is big is pulling us down and once the the 34 and 22 move back to down phase...it will be ugly...what do you think?

  2. How about the grand Super Cycle (120 years), the K-Wave (60 years), the Super Cycle (30 years), the 10 year cycle and a few other like the Kitchin cycle, the Juglar cycle, the Kuznet cycle (and some I missed I am sure) all down and should start showing maximum down momentum over the next few months?

    Takes the shorter cycles longer to overcome this downside so instead of a orderly upside move - the pressure builds and when they do prevail they tend to move a lot in a short period. At least that seems to be the behavior recently.