Thursday, August 11, 2011

outlook for 08-12-2011

Today appears to have completed the small inverted H&S pattern that I mentioned yesterday.  That implies we may get a pullback Friday.

Looking at the shorter cycles we see the 22TD cycle, the 11.2TD cycle and the 2.8TD cycle are down.  The 34TD cycle and 5.6TD cycle are up.  IMO the 20 week (4.5 month) and 9 month cycles bottomed.  But bottoming is a process and takes time.  The longer the cycle the longer the turn radius - so these cycles now should have little impact for some time.  See my prior post for a look at the remainder of 2011.

Based on the current cycle alignment it appears tomorrow should have a down side bias.  Here is a chart of the SPX:
GL traders.  Actual market performance may not fulfill expectations so be careful.


  1. Inlet wanted to point out there is a full moon on sat and from what I've studied the direction prior to it more times than not reverses the day after it. So with futures being down big perhaps we have a down day Friday and shoot for the low 1200's early next week?

  2. c88 - I've also see that. I also did a GANN CALC from the last 2 trends we've had...both worked out pretty close. Look back at the 8/9 Post (I think). I now have a CALC that says over the next 1.8 Days the DOW drops 1080 pts. (10,190). The SP should drop to 1010. From the 5/2 High to where we did the double top basically forecasted a reversal trend of 2500 pts.(+/-) At the time I didn't believe that this could happen....but it's looking real good now. So hold onto your seats.

  3. c88 - the lunar cycle corresponds closely with the 22TD cycle which should bottom the middle of next week. Probably the maximum down side Mon-Wed of next week. A test of the recent lows a possibility?

  4. Shadow7 - extreme moves of say 10% over a very short period (1-2 days) is very rare. Trying to predict such a rare event is not for the faint of heart. I see nothing in my analysis to support such a sharp move in such a short time frame.

    We will see. Maybe Europe will completely unravel over the weekend.