Thursday, August 25, 2011

September Spiral dates

The large peak on the 25th with a 6.5 score – this represents 5 spirals aligned on the 25th: F5, F9, F10, F21 and F22, together with F18, and F19 on the 24th, and F13 on the 26th – is of great interest as it also falls two days before the new moon. As I wrote last month this is prime territory for the end of a panic or crash as shown in Chirs Carolan’s Autumn Panics: A Calendar Phenomenon. The exact timing (moon phases in EST) is for the new moon at 6:09am EST on Tuesday 27th September. The end of any panic is supposed to occur 55 hours earlier, plus or minus 12 hours, which is a window from 11am EST Saturday 24th, through 11am EST Sunday 25th right in the middle of the weekend. If it does turn out to be a panic, we might expect the market to close Friday after a steep decline, but then open with a bounce on Monday. Another interesting point is that the August 27th spiral score peak and the Sept 25th one are exactly F1 apart, so if we get a turn near August 27th, this would further reinforce the Sept 25th date. Both dates are in prime danger territory for a panic, and it’s not impossible that we might see two panics or at least large declines in a row a month apart, marking wave 3s of successive impulse waves down. Of course how the market behaves immediately prior to these dates is critical, so as always, predicting the direction of a turn too far ahead is difficult.

The history of autumn panics: