Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Outlook for 08-10-2011

The market is searching for a bottom as we have some fairly lengthy cycles bottoming.  There is the 9 month cycle, the 20 week cycle (approx. 4.5 months) and possibly a 3 year cycle bottoming.  Now it is uncertain if they have already found a bottom or if there is a lower level that will be the bottom. 

As of now it appears 1100 may become a temporary bottom.  On the other hand there is the shorter 22TD cycle that should bottom around Aug 17 which may define the final bottom.  Volatility continues and  the very nimble trader may benefit from this, but it is a very dangerous game.

For the next few days I plan to watch, trade the market in front of me  (if it makes extreme moves) and not try and anticipate exactly what the market will do.  As I said yesterday - I believe the shorter cycles are of little value in providing guidance at this time.  I anticipate it will take some days for volatility to slacken so we can again focus on the shorter cycles.  So I will not provide visuals of the shorter cycles at this time as they are apt to be confusing or misleading at this time.

GL traders.  This is a high risk market (short/long) and stops are very likely to get tripped.  If you decide to trade be nimble, very nimble.

1 comment:

  1. May be building an inverted H&S on the short term (10-30 min) for S&P.