Monday, July 25, 2011
An inverted H&S explained in terms of cycles - $HUI (updated)
How can an H&S (or inverted H&S) pattern can be explained in terms of cycle interaction?
$HUI shows the interaction on the daily chart of the 20 week and 22TD cycles. The LS is the 22TD cycle bottoming (the 20 week cycle is down). Then the 22TD cycle turns up followed by the 20 week and 22TD cycle bottoming together (the H). The 20week and 22TD cycles turn up, followed by the 22TD turning down (the RS). Once the 22TD cycle bottoms you have the potential for a breakout to the upside as the 20 week cycle is up hard along with the 22TD cycle being up.
This is how an inverted H&S is formed and is interpreted in terms of cycles. Do inverted H&Ses work? Often they do, but be aware a 3rd or 4th cycle may interact to counter the action of the primary cycles involved in forming the H&S and at times you will see them fail. Now if we look at a weekly chart of $HUI the H&S pattern does not show up because the 22TD cycle is not very evident on the weekly cycle. The 20week cycle is still quite prominent. GL traders - I hope you find this informative and helpful when doing your analysis.