Saturday, July 16, 2011

Comments an the week of 07-18-2011

Seems I may have gotten back in sync with the cycles and which are dominant at this time?  Looking at the SPX and the 22TD and 34TD cycles it appears the 22TD cycle may have bottomed (and at the latest should bottom Monday).  The 34TD cycle topped 6-7 days ago and is down for the next 10-11 trading days into the end of July.

The DPO (cycle amplitude of the 22TD cycle is about 50pts over 11+ days.  This is about 4.5 points a day to the upside next week (and into the end of July).  The DPO of the 34TD cycle is about 60 points or about 3.5 points to the downside each day.  So these 2 cycles provide about 5 points of upside for the week.

Next, I looked at the 65-70TD day cycle (13-14 weeks) and the 20 week (Wall) cycle.  The 20 week cycle is down.  The 14week cycle is up.  So these 2 cycles like the 34TD and 22TD cycles will offset to a large extent.  Looking at the DPO for the 14 week cycle  it provides about 8.50 points to the upside for the week.  The 20 week (Wall cycle) provides about  9 points to the downside for the week.  So maybe 1 or so points of downside potential for these 2 cycles.

In summary the week looks flat and shows the potential to end 4-5 points higher for the week  as I interpret the charts.

GL traders.  As always, do your own analysis,  Sideways markets can offer some decent short term trading opportunities - day trading or a 2 day trade.  You will need to look at shorter cycles to try and get the best entries and exits.


  1. Thanks for the various charts. A lot of churn coming up. What do you see in cycles coming up that would indicate lower or higher into eoy? TIA

  2. Best - according to Cliff Droke we have a 6 year topping in the Sep/Oct timeframe and he says that generally marks a longer term top.

    The PI cycle bottomed in mid-June and is up, but it will take time to build upside "mo". Of course the 1 year cycle will be up into the end of the year. But then you have the 10 year cycle and Kitchin cycle that should bottom next year so they should start showing some real downside "mo" soon.

    As always it is never pretty or easy to sort out, but my gut feeling we start seeing the front side of what could be a huge "bear" before the end of the year. This could be the King Kong of bears. lol

  3. I know that you are a died in the wool Cycle Guy but I frankly must say that I don't find Cycle Work very compelling. I do find your Envelope Charts to be absolutely fascinating though and I love them and find them to be most helpful at times.

    Can we have more Envelope Charts with reasons for you assigning certain numerical values to the Charts? Thank you.

  4. Tom - On a personal level I look at multiple forms of TA. But, the blog is called Swing Trade Cycles (not Swing Trade TA) so I try to stick to covering TA from a cycle perspective.

    Why a single Ta approach? First it eliminates speculation about this news story or that news story (I spend very little time on news). Second, I am trying to educate on a single approach to TA not a broad spectrum of TA (which could take a lifetime plus). Third, there are lots of sites out there that cover other TA approaches. Fourth, so far I have found no other "free" site that covers cycles for the shorter term trader.

    As to envelopes - anyone can do them on The parameters I use: 1) the first parameter is the length of the MA - which is usually the length of a potential (ie 22 days or 34 days for daily cycles) cycle. Or, for weekly cycles I might use 20 for the 20 week cycle. 2) the second parameter is the % above and below the MA and has to be estimated based on the volatility of the stock or index. As you would expect a longer time (MA) frame usually means a larger % move. The % move is larger for weekly than daily charts. 3) The third parameter is the time shift to position the channels mid-way over the data being averaged so it aligns with the data being averaged. The dashed lines at the end of the channel are my projections.

    Give it a try. I will be happy to try and answer questions.