Thursday, July 7, 2011

comments and outlook for 07-08-2011

Missed posting yesterday, sorry about that - was having some back muscle spasm issues and could hardly sit up.  Today I think cleared up some things.  With today's move up I think it is clear the 22TD cycle is no longer in play. 

Now as was discussed some months back when we switched from 34TD (33.75 so it is often referred to as 33TD cycle) is back in play.    If that is the case it may not top before the middle of next week (and would not bottom until in early August.  I have not done the analysis yet, but last time the 33-34TD cycle nested within the 20 week (Wall) cycle which is 100 days or 3X the 33-34TD cycle.  I have never seen the 22TD cycle and 34TD cycle dominant at the same time...  I suppose it could happen.

I have annotated the SPY chart showing this assumption.  The 34TD cycle should be up, the 11.2TD cycle should be up,  The 5.6 and 2.8TD cycles should be down.  This should result in a somewhat sideways day Friday.

Here is the chart:

GL traders.  I hope we are now in sync with the cycles.  We will know in the next 4-5 days, but should have hints along the way.


  1. SP500 Rallye of 15-20%!

  2. The last time this happened (last earnings season) we topped out (33/34TD) and fell off 8 days...we thought the 33TD would last at least 16TD...but the 22TD stepped back in control and we went higher. The whole thing started on 3/16. What do you think?

  3. There seems to be a 64TD (90CD) Cycle which is a combination of the 33TD and the 22TD cycle.

  4. Critical Dates:
    • March 16th – Last time the 64TD bottomed.
    • The pattern during this 64TD cycle could be repeated (but I don’t think so…but just so all the cards are out…the potential is there).

    • June 16th – 33TD/64TD bottoms and starts anew.

    • July 8th – 33TD Tops
    • July 12th Earnings Season Starts
    • July 15th – 18th - Option Expiration
    • July 18th -20th - 22TD Bottoms/Restarts within the downside of the 33TD….should be a bloody day. There will be a battle here…some sideways action…this is when things will be told. Last time the 33TD and 22TD met up was last earnings season and the market reversed and took off...if it does then we go over 13,000. But....If we keep going down after (12,290) that then it's to 11,400. This chart shows that this would be in line with the 2010 1 year pattern/cycle.

    • August 2nd - 22TD Tops, 33TD Bottoms, and 64 TD Cycle Tops – this would be an up day. Debt Ceiling Vote….I think.
    • August 5th – Monthly Jobs Report
    • August 17th – 22TD Bottoms – within the 64 TD going down. Red day.
    • August 24th – 33TD Tops

    • September 1st- 22TD Tops within the downside of the 33TD…should be a bloody day.

    Cycles are bottoming almost the same time – should be bloody unless QE? Is suggested prior:
    • In any of the scenarios the rubber meets the road during this time period.
    • September 14th – 33TD/64TD Bottoms
    • September 16th – 22 Bottoms – OEX - Quadruple Witching
    • QE Something has to start….most likely a hint of this will need to occur prior to this triple cycle bottom time period.

    Footnote: My opinion the 64TD(90CD) cycle is a combination of the intermingling of the 22TD(30CD) / 33TD(45CD) Cycles.

    What do you think?

  5. Oh...where is the 20WK Wall Cycle...that may be the deciding factor?

  6. Shadow - some very good comments and observations. T-Theory seems to believe that thare is a 14 week cycle (70TD cycle instead of 64 days), so that may be something to consider. I ask that you remind us as critical points approach. Together we hopefully can predict the market better than any one person can.

    Thanks for your contribution. I will try and furnish a chart showing some of the critical points of your observations.

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  8. Shadow, on your 3rd post you say, "This chart shows that this would be in line with the 2010 1 year pattern/cycle."

    Can you post the chart you are referring to? TIA