Saturday, July 16, 2011

chart by shadow

Shadow thanks for the chart.   What is the S&P value that equates to zero?  I am guessing around 1340-1350 range  ( the longest blue line down: 1345 - 85 = 1260).

I guess I am asking what is your high and low on the S&P using your chart.  Appreciate any enlightenment you can supply for interpreting this.

I hope I responded to all your prior comments.  As I have stated in the past the purpose of the blog is to educate as well as to inform.  People like yourself who take the ball and run with it will profit the most I believe.  Others at least will be familiar with cycles (and hopefully recognize one when it stands out).

Again - thanks for contributing.

Updated 07-18 11:55

Additional charts referenced in Shadow's comments (reference them for context): 


  1. Inlet I've done much research over this weekend. It seems we are at market crossroads either we retest 125.50 on spy and head upwards or we head down toward a head and shoulders pattern which will take s&P down to 1148. How long a period time is anyone's guess. Also if we retest and head up we can go to 1480.
    I'm wondering how to match up cycles to this technical analysis which may best help us to determine which way the market will head over the next few months. It seems according to Shadow's analysis we end the year around the 1480 mark do you agree with that?
    Thanks for this blog.

  2. Mouth - if you look at my weekly outlook you will see the second chart shows the combo of the 20week and 65-70 day cycles with a potential bottom around mid Sept that should break recent lows. This does not consider the position of shorter cycles which may raise or lower that level. I would suggest to you we probably break recent lows before we break this year's highs.

    So you would need to add the 35TD and 22TD impacts projected out to mid Sept IMO to get an estinmate for the low.

    GL. feel free to share your approach and research.

  3. As to the eoy - I try not to get too far ahead as I want to see more data points before I make that judgment.

    Cliff Droke says the 10 year cycle is on a 2004-2014 (bottom to bottom) cycle. Others say it is on a 2002-2012 (bottom to bottom) cycle. I believe 2002-2012 is the right interpretation. If that is the right interpretation then we should start to see the impact of the 10 year cycle before EOY (down).

    Droke also writes: >>In the latest edition of his SineScope advisory (15 Phoenix Ave., Morristown, NJ 07960), Kress writes, "Of the six component cycles, the interaction between any two of the three most significant cycles - the 30-year mini super cycle; the 12-year primary direction cycle; the 6-year secondary direction cycle - portrays the long term position of the market.

    The 6-year cycle is scheduled to peak in October this year but as Mr. Kress has emphasized, it's a possibility that the weight of the long-term 30-year, 40-year and 60-year cycles could end up foreshortening the peaking process before October. It's important therefore to be prepared for the eventual end of the Fed's loose money policy and the closing of the 6-year cycle window, the effects of which should be felt within a few months.<<

    So if the 6 year cycle is as important as Kress/Droke implies it will be bad news between now and EOY.

  4. Unfortunately I can't effectively put a value yet for an index. But I have since revised this chart to use only positive values for the CYCLEs, hence the chart stays above zero. The cycles that I'm representing as a composite are the 1.375D, 2, 2.75D, 4D, 5.5D, 8.75D(need to adjust), 11D, 17.5D, 22TD, 35D, 70D, 100D(WALL). I had the 1 year in but it dampened too much.

    I also have been studying the Kress/Droke Cycles and it seems to me everything tops 2012 spring-fall, because the 4 and 2 Year (correct me)...and 2014 is when the Sh$t Hits The Fan. I did a composite of all these cycles and it showed that we should have been going steadily downhill from 1999 to 2014!!!! That would mean there's been alot of icing on the cake since 2000!!! The cycles I represented are the 2,4,6,8,10,12,20,24,30,40, and 60.

    Well seems we all have conflicting data..which means at some point 1 of them is going to show through...and it seems September will be the tell-tale month. This is getting real exciting. Thanks to all for the input.

  5. Mouth - If we head up after September we should get real close to 1400 (if not surpass) by Spring 2012..1480...hmmmm?

  6. Shadow -

    If you read the URL I posted on Droke you will see he/Kress put the main emphasis on the 6, 10, 30 year cycles.

    On the other hand, if you refer to my blog post on Daniel T. Ferrera you will see he says the combination of the 24 month, 41 month (Kitchin), and 10 year cycles are a potent combination. All three of these cycles bottom in close proximity in 2012 according to Ferrara.

    David Knox Barker seems to focus on the 41 month (Kitchin) and Wall cycle. Barker has the 41 month cycle bottoming around mid year in 2012.

    If we combine the favorites of these three - I would suggest it might be a potent combination (20 week, 24 month, 41 month, 6 year, 10 year, 30 year). Note: Ferrera puts the 10 year cycle bottoms on years ending in 2 (2002 and 2012).

    Of course there is Martin Armstrong and the PI cycle (8.6 years which supposedly bottomed 2011.45 (June 14-15).

    Just so some thoughts. Research it and see what you think.