Wednesday, March 30, 2011

What the cycle analysts are saying - part 3

Tonight we look at cycle analyst David Knox Barker.

Mr. Barker probably goes in to more detail about his analysis that the other analysts I have covered. He claims cycles can vary based on certain Fibonacci ratios (an illustrates this in his writings). One of the more interesting analysts I think. He also claims that government intervention extended the long wave (K-wave) cycle into 2012 - and it should have actually bottomed in 2009. He believes the current K-wave started in 1949 (or early 1950) and would have ended in 2009 or early 2010 (60 years) except for government intervention. A K-Wave is and made up of 2 Super cycles (same as Drokes).

He focuses on the Kitchin Cycle (he set it at 42 months - others use 41 months and 40.68 months (3.39 years) and some call it the Dewey cycle. He says there are 16 Kitchin cycles within a K-wave (8 within a Super cycle). The other cycle he focuses on is the 20 week cycle which he calls the Wall cycle (after PQ Wall explained the relationship between the 20 week cycle and the Kitchin cycle). There is 3 sets of 3 Wall cycles within each Kitchin Cycle. The rule of third last and weakest makes the third Wall cycle decline harder than the other two in the three sets and tends to show up clearly on a chart, which was what occurred on July 1, 2010

Let' summarize:

  • K-Wave (1949-2012)
  • Super cycle (1949-1981, 1981-2012 avg 31.5 years)
  • Kitchin cycle 42 Months (Mar 09 - Sep 12)
  • Wall cycle 20 weeks (pivot date July 1, 2010)
Here are the longer cycles:

And the Kitchin and wall cycles:

GL traders.  I hope you appreciate the similarities and differences of the analysts.  Next you will see how one analyst believes there are 3 Kitchin cycles in a 10 year cycle...    So be sure to read about the next analyst.

1 comment:

  1. 3 sets of 3 Wall cycles...flashbacks to Daneric and his 3rd of a 3rd and the illusive P3 ;-(