Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Comments and outlook 03-17

Another interesting day.  I told you over the weekend that news may override cycles.  Well, we saw it again today.  It wasn't even current news.  Evidently the EU energy minister said last night that the situation in Japan was out of control.  Duh!!!  You knew that, but when it hit the wires during the day (as if it were new news) the market dropped like a stone.  It made a couple of feeble attempts to rally, but the damage had been done and the day closed down.  So I will repeat:  NEWS CAN OVERRIDE THE CYCLES.  Until the situation with the nuclear plants in Japan is resolved (successfully we hope)  the market will be on edge and drop at the slightest excuse.

Still, I get a sense something more is going on.  My guess is that the longer cycles are starting to build some down side momentum.  If that is the case it could be a long spring/summer for the bulls.  I will be on watch for more clues of this.  If you see/read anything relevant, please share it.

We start the day with the two shorter cycles down, so we may get a test of today's lows in the morning.  They bottom during the day giving us 4 shorter cycles up by the end of the day.  So I would expect some recovery later in the day.

Here is the picture:

GL traders.  If you have longs left in your portfolio your stops were a lot looser than mine.  Also, my inverses are almost all gone from my portfolio.  So I am hoping for a "pop" sometime tomorrow to reload my inverses.


  1. inlet just wanted to share a post from over at Cobra's intraday trhead from the gentleman who called the selloff almost to a T about 2 weeks ago. Here is what he said this morning.......

    by cletus » Wed Mar 16, 2011 9:14 am

    Jim Rogers, a famous billionaire investor, was on Bloomberg saying he was wanting
    to buy the Nikkei, but he hasn't dipped in yet. That means the Nikkei selloff may
    not be over, hence, the US markets may still have more downside to go. That said,
    I will definitely look to unwind my short-term book of shorts on a dip today
    (anything I can quickly buy back if needed) and put in some stops on profitable
    long-term short positions. The turn date is this weekend, so if it's a low, the
    markets may still sell into the weekend. If they recover into the weekend, it might
    be a short-term top.

    We are now entering the official full moon cycle, which is often the most bearish.

  2. So my thoughts would be down into Saturday's full moon then rebound starting Monday.....most likely after Japan has some success over the weekend in containing the reactors and radiation.

  3. c_k

    As you know I sometimes highlight a 22 trading day cycle (that is 4 weeks). So throw in 8 weekend (non-trading days) and you have a lunar cycle (30 calendar days +/-). I am not a Astrology oriented type, but I kid around about the lunar cycle (which works sometimes and not other times).

    Is there a cause and effect? I don't have a clue. We know the moon can affect moods, tides, menustral cycles, etc. We know farmers have planted according to lunar cycles for centuries. So, all I am saying is - I don't know if there is a cause and effect (I would not be surprised if there is).

    Thanks for sharing the info.