Saturday, March 26, 2011

Outllook for April, 2nd qtr and 2011

Next week we start an new month and new quarter.  I think we did fairly well in getting the 1st  quarter right (turned negative about the 2nd week of February - a couple of weeks early).  Recently turned positive as we got a VIX trend change signal (which was supported by the cycles).

For the month of April I expect we see strength and upside through the first full week of April.  After that I expect another pullback to last through the end of April.  This pullback should set lows that are lower than in March.  As inflation (oil prices?) continue at high levels it will affect input and transportation costs to many firms.  They probably cannot pass on all these costs.  That will lead to margin pressure in April and the quarter.  So I expect earnings for the first quarter will be decent, but the outlook cloudy.  And the outlooks will impact stock prices.

Looked at Fibonacci pivot projections and they seem to support this outlook for the quarter:  Here are those projections:

See the 03-28 week projection  for a chart showing April.

Looks like we get a Fib projection of a pivot on 04/18.  But, it seems these projections have been off by about a week all year - so I am guessing this one will be also and we top around 04/11.  The next pivot projection is for 07/15 (bottom?).  Again I suspect this is off by about a week, but it implies we are bottoming as the quarter ends.

Finally a chart showing the outlook for the remainder of the year.  This chart is somewhat dated as it was created at the beginning of the year, but so far it has been spot on and is worth a look:

GL traders.  Do your own analysis.


  1. Inlet,

    Just to say again that I do read & appreciate your work.

    Please keep your blog going.

  2. Thanks Doctrader - it always helps to know your efforts are appreciated. As of now I plan to keep it going.