Saturday, March 19, 2011

FXA (Aussie $) Update II

The outlook (I know zero about currencies):

GL, do your own analysis

Update 1: Here is the US dollar:

Update II: US 10 yeat treasuries:

US$ vs gold:


  1. Thanks inlet I appreciate your time on this. I know about as much about cycles as you do currencies. Maybe we meet somewhere in middle. Assume I understand nothing here ( which happens to be the case ). What does this mean say 3-6 months out to a layman, as myself?

    Thanks again

  2. Inlet,

    If I may make a request, ONLY if you have time. No worries if you don't.

    Could you chart one or more of the following, you pick. First aim assuming you are using stock chart to do your charting. Here are the tickers $USD, $XAD, $XEU, $XJY. These are US dollar, Aussie, Euro, and Yen respectively.

    Also $UST2Y, $UST10Y, $UST30Y.

    No need to do all. But if all works out as I expect longer-term. us dollar goes up, yen up to inchanged, AUD down, euro down.

    All US treasury yields down.

    Again, if it's a pain no worries. Note yen will look wrong, only because it the opposite ratio that is most commonly used or referred to in media. But it's correct.

  3. Bat -

    Let me refer you to a site (stockcom.charts chartlists) that has charts of many of these things:

    (copy and paste this URL). Page 4 has charts of curriencies and bonds that you may find interesting.

    I will take a look at some of the items you mentioned.

  4. Thanks inlet.

    Here's a chart you might find interesting.

  5. Inlet you've been doing great work here congrads. I want to ask you about your prediction for Apple stock. You said you see a lower high on 4/4. Does that mean we decline into it or will that be the start of a decline?
    Many thanks and keep up the good work.

  6. C88

    When I said a lower high I was saying lower than the recent highs (I believe that was in the 360s). So you may get something of a bounce off of recent lows, but I have doubts you will get back to these recent highs (I would expect a high under 350 - based on recent movement). No guarantees, but that seems the most likely scenario to me.

  7. so do you think that Apple is a buy as of 4/4 or a sell?

  8. C88 -

    Let's not get ahead of ourselves. Let's see what happens the next few days and if it plays out as anticpated.

    But generally you sell (go short, buy puts) at a a top. But, it may depend on several other factors - such as taxes (if you will owe a lot of them), you may choose to write calls on your position (a little insurance).