Monday, March 28, 2011

What the cycle analysts are saying - part 1

Whqt are the cycles analysts saying?  I often look at what other cycle analysts have to say.  Sometimes I agree with them,  Other times, I agree with them only in part.   So I thought over the next few days I would provide you a summary of what some of these analysts say. 

The first one I want to look at is Jim Curry (Google him to find out his background and articles).  I looked at an article from February 22 this year and extracted information from his article.

To summarize this is some of the highlights of the article:

I) The 45 trading cycle is in topping range, and is 21 days along (top Feb 23/24, 2011). The last low for the 45-day wave was the 1/20/11 bottom of 1271.26.

II) The 90 trading day cycle currently at 65 days along. The last bottom for the 90-day wave was the 11/16/10 low of 1173.00 on the SPX. Should bottom Mar 15, 2011?

III ) 180 day cycle (trading days) - 9 months (~ 40 weeks or 2 X Wall cycle of 20 weeks). It is 161 days from last bottom. 180 days should be March 21 (bottom). The last bottom was July 2010 at 1010.91

IV) The larger 360-day component, which is currently looking to peak at some point around the Summer of 2011 Averages 270 trading days - Note: He switched from trading days to calendar days to describe this cycle. As I interpret this cycle it tops in January and bottoms in early July.

V) The 4-year cycle is currently seen as 494 days (trading days) along from the 03/06/09 low of 666.79. This cycle should top March 2011 and bottom again in March 2013.


The 45 day cycle is the nominal 10 week cycle (50 trading days). The 90 day cycle is sometimes referred to by Curry as 18-20 week cycle (the 20 week Wall cycle or 100 trading days).

Here is my interpretation of his cycles:

As you can see there is a lot of similarity to some of my interpretations, but  some differences.  His 90 day cycle is my Wall cycle (100 trading days).  He interprets the shorter cycle as 45 days (usually I use 33 days).   See the above URL for his chart versions.

Gl traders.  The more you know the better prepared you are to interpret my postings and make your own decisions.

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