at the casino

Time to take a break.....  DOW down hard now!!!

Nested envelopes buy/sell signals

the nested envelopes give signals when upper lines or bottom lines cross.  You may want to vary envelope parameters  to those shown:

Oct 25 gdx

good luck gold bugs

Oct 25 2019 outlook

CHART IS 2 YEARS.  PRICE BARS ARE WEEKLY. 
HALF CIRCLES OVERLAID TO SHOW 3  MAJOR NESTS.

GL TRADERS

Oct 14, 2019 outlook

Late December 2018 (year end) a 9 month cycle beginning low was set.  Mid to late May a mid point high  ( 4 1/2 months from low late Dec) was reached. Mid May to early Oct is 4+ months (completing the 9 month cycle).  

Note: cycle lengths are rarely exact  and the 9 month cycle should be 40+ weeks (9 months is 39 weeks - 1  week longer than  9 months).  Over time the average for the 9 month cycle is close to 9 months  and we need to allow for this.

Good luck traders

Oct 3, 2019 outlook

Good luck

see July 01 post

'Nuff said

Sept outlook

Sep 10 spx outlook

Short cycles (2.5, 5, 10 weeks):

10 week should top soon.....  5 week cycle headed down....  2 1/2 week cycle  topping....    TSI bottomed and turned up (bullish?)

GDX Sept 9, 2019

Short cycles about 2 1/2 weeks......

Sept 3, INDU outlook

Nest has formed?

Good luck

Aug 24, 2019 outlook

The up sloping trend line was broken and has become a resistance line as market moves up/down beneath that trend line.  Beta has become stronger with this trend line violation.  

Cycle

Cycle alignment favors  more down movement.

AUG 15, 2019

nest late Sept (or early Oct):

In  the interim expect volatility up and down with a downside  bias.  Nest of 40, 20, 10, 5 week bottom near end of Sept or early Oct.
                               

Good Luck

Aug 5 - next 2 months

Market looking high risk - time to trim positions????

Be careful traders

Last week of July - 2019 outlook

5 week cycled topped (turned down),. Ditto for 10 week cycle.    first half of August may be down hill.  (XAU added as update)

Good luck traders

GOLD:

outlook week of July 21, 2019

10 week cycle topped as 5 week cycle bottomed  and turned up (along with uptrend for 20 week cycle). 2 cycles up (mo up should win next 2-5 days).

Good luck

   

July 8, 2019 outlook

May have (appears) SnP 500 topped near

 3000.  Here is a channel chart showing the  SPX:

Good Luck

July 01, 2019 outlook

Top expected soon,  right translated cycle

Good luck, be careful

June 21 outlook

   Lack of pullback after FOMC indicates market is not ready for pullback yet. Sometimes you get the BEAR - sometimes the bear gets you.

  

Good luck

June 18, 2019 weekly outlook

Early week up.  FED meeting could reverse market  by mid week.   Chart confirms this - see for yourself:

GL traders

June 3, weekly outlook

The 40 week cycle has turned down.  The 20 week cycle is UP...  The 10 week cycle is TOPPING, as the 5 week cycle BOTTOMS.  (10 week mid cycle dip may be enough to trade  and it may not be enough to trade.  Be careful.)

Given this interaction of cycles we have seen about 6-7 % pull back  in the SnP 500.  This should be enough to warrant s bounce next week as the 10 week cycle turns down along with the 40 week being down.

GL traders

May 27, 2019 outlook

The 40 week (9 month) cycle has topped and turned down, but lacks downside momentum.  The 20 week, 10 week, and 5 week cycles have bottomed and turned up.  Therefore I would expect sideways to slightly up/down as the cycles play against each other near term until the 40 week cycle gains more downside  pressure.

See for yourself:

GL Traders

Weekly outlook May 20, 2019

Dow Jones Industrial  Average showed a mid cycle (40 weeks cycle) dip.  I had projected May 15 as a dip bottom.  Appears bottom was  May 13....

With the ups and downs as the 40 week cycle topped  hard to not lose money,  My only gains were some CDs paying interest and some dividends.  Stock gains were  mainly missing.

As stocks gain downside momentum looks like "sell in May and go away " may be good advice.  I have $150k in CDs and bonds  (bond funds).  Also about $200k in an IRA annuity.  Only about $20k in equities.  May trade a little around the edges June to August.

GL traders

May 8 2019 - longer term outlook

Here is the 40 week half cycle down time line:

 

 

GL traders

May 13 update (positive signals):

May 06, 2019 outlook

Chart is weekly chart.  Appears we got a 40  week mid cycle down Wed-Thur.

 Now 40 week cycle (9 months) turning down as 20 week and 10 week cycles turn up...….

 

GL traders

May 1 - 40, 20,, 10 week cycles (SPX 2019)

 

as requested:

Mid  cycle bottom (20 week cycle, and 10 week cycle bottoms) as 40 week cycle tops.

GL  Honest

April 29, 2019 weekly outlook

Recently market going sideways so you had to be careful in your stock selection.  I told you a couple of weeks ago Ford looked interesting.  Friday that interest paid off (you had to buy prior to Friday, and I did).

 

Market may retreat next couple of weeks so choose carefully.

GL  traders

April 22, 2019 weekly outlook

10 week and 20 week  cycles turning down.  Should be enough down side pressure to control direction of the market.

Good Luck traders

Weekly outlook April 15, 2019

The market keeps pushing higher with difficulty.  I had opined some 3-4 weeks ago that it appeared a right translated cycle was developing (top past half cycle).  The SP500 is about 20 points below a new high....  and we have a right translated top  so we may get earnings disappointment this week and a pull back (at least  that is my opinion)

Good luck traders

Weekly outlook April 8, 2019

My take on JM Hurst's work with cycles  (free to you).

 

If you prefer you can pay several hundred for the app(s) to draw Hurst charts (sample follows):

 

GL traders

outlook week of April 1, 2019

A top was set about 1 week ago (20 week cycle).   So that cycle   (20 weeks) turned down.   The 40 week cycle is still in a left leg up move.

The 10 weeks cycle   is topping and should turn down during the week.   The 5 week cycle (not shown ) should bottom and turn up by week end.

Short term trade possible (bottom mid week??).

 

GL traders

March 25, 2019 weekly outlook

Looks like we have topped.  I had expected a top 2-3 days earlier, but cycles are not always exact.  Be ready to take what the market gives you.  you should have raised cash this past week  and be ready to buy trading position around third  week of  April.

 

green circles = BUY, red circles = SELL

NOTE:  Most recent circles are red....

GL traders

Mar 18, 2019 weekly outlook

Past two weeks saw the 10 week cycle bottom.   As expected the cycle top was right translated so the downside of the 10 week cycle will be minimal in time (say past 2 weeks down and a fraction of the rise in the prior 7  weeks).  But, the total length of the cycle should be 10 weeks. 

 

 

Good Luck traders

weekly outlook Mar 11, 2019

The drop this past week was past due as the top was right translated for the 10 week cycle.  Since cycles balance out I would expect the down leg of the 10 week cycle to be less than 5 weeks. 

GL  TRADERS

March 04, 2019 weekly outlook

Not much progress up or down this past week.  With turning points ahead expect a bit more action this week.

Good luck

Weekly outlook february 25 2019

Appears SnP500 stopped 4 times at the same area.  Let's see if that resistance zone holds and market turns down?

GL TRADERS

FEB 18, 2019 WEEKLY OUTLOOK

Are we headed to new highs?  I  suspect we have seen the 10 week cycle high this past week.  We had a major low December 26 and  5 weeks from that (half the 10 week cycle) would be late January or early February.  But it is now about 7 weeks in to the 10 week cycle (so we should have seen the cycle high).

It is not uncommon to see "right translated" cycles once a trend turns up.  So we may have seen the down trend (Oct-Dec) play out and now are in an up trend. 



GL traders

FEBRUARY 11, 2019 WEEKLY OUTLOOK

 UPDATE 2/12:

As I suggested mid week last week may offer a buying opportunity.  Mid to late week sold off and  depending on what stocks you were watching  provided an opening to make a buy. I had bought 4 stocks on Thursday and put in "sell gtc orders before market open."  Now need to find something to buy (only 1 position left).

Like I have stated in the past shorter  cycles can provide  larger per cent movement in a shorter period.  For example a 50 point movement of  the SP500 in 5 days is an average of 10 points a day, whereas over 10 days that 50 point movement is 5 points a day.

This is why shorter cycles (like the 10 week cycle) can have an over size short term impact down /up  even when multiple longer cycles are moving the opposite direction (as we  saw the latter part of the last week).

Here is the new week (updated):

 

GL traders

 

 

FEB 4, 2019 WEEKLY OUTLOOK

The 5 week cycle completed its 5 weeks from the last bottom December 26 and turned up.  The 10 week cycle completed a half cycle and topped.  That  gives us an up 5 week, up 20 week cycle and up 9  month cycle this week.  The sum of the cycles should be UP, but the 10 week cycle will moderate the move.

The stochastic RSI indicates  a possible near term trading buy (mid week?)  See for yourself:

 GL traders

Jan 28, 2019 weekly outlook

RSI is often used for buy/sell signals (under 30 oversold - buy, over 70 over bought sell).  But the time between signals can be longer than desired.  (So the STOCHRSI was developed.  See for yourself. Over 0.8 sell, under 0.2 buy )  Top of chart is RSI and bottom is STOCHRSI.

Hope you find this useful.  GL Traders

Jan 21, weekly outlook

The 10  week cycle nearing a top.  This cycle has had good thrust in the recent past.  Watch the RSI (lower part of chart) - 70 is over bought and normally indicates a top.

Take a look.....

GL Traders

ideal cycles

How do I choose cycles for display?  The 10 week,  20 week, and 40 week (often called 9 month cycle) is a group of cycles identified by JM Hurst in his work (Google him for lots more info).  I did not just randomly choose them.  The 20 week  (100 day) cycle is called the Wall cycle after a person named Wall.

Take a look:

Now look at a chart with data:

 

  Hope this  informs you as to my method of selecting cycles (I cheat LOL)

GL traders

Jan14, 2019 weekly outlook

5 week cycle topping:

 

GL Traders