Cycles are a tool and should not be used to the exclusion of other tools. There is always the possibility (high probability long term) that the data will be misinterpreted or a relevant fact over looked. So use cycles to check your analysis, not as the only reason to make a decision. Interpretation is the opinion of the author and may be incorrect and should be viewed in that light.
Saturday, May 4, 2019
May 06, 2019 outlook
Chart is weekly chart. Appears we got a 40 week mid cycle down Wed-Thur.
Now 40 week cycle (9 months) turning down as 20 week and 10 week cycles turn up...….
40 week cycle bottoms end of Sept. or early Oct. 20 week cycle bottoms late May (4 1/2 months from Dec. 24 low and turns up and tops 10 weeks later (around Aug 1)
Looks like a correction starting,,, This may be the expected pullback (right translated top) I have been expecting for the past 2-3 weeks and was warning you to be careful.
No. The 40 week cycle is at "mid cycle" and turning down and much of the down side could be in May. Stock cycles are rarely perfectly symmetrical (if they were all our trades would be winners).
Thank you for your analysis, they are nearly spot on. Can you please tell when will be the right translated cycle of 40 week cycle which means it will accelerate lower at that point?
I would if I could predict the timing of a top exactly, but that is the place where there is most likely to be some guessing in my analysis.
I generally can give you an approximate topping region. the 40 week cycle is 9 months so the mid point is 4 1/2 months, from Dec 24th bottom to mid May is 20 weeks or mid point of the 40 week cycle. So we may be topping at the mid point (no right translation), which means I may have been wrong about right translation.
As I said - guessing enters the analysis as we near a top.
What is your prediction for May-June ?
ReplyDelete40 week cycle bottoms end of Sept. or early Oct. 20 week cycle bottoms late May (4 1/2 months from Dec. 24 low and turns up and tops 10 weeks later (around Aug 1)
ReplyDeleteLooks like a correction starting,,, This may be the expected pullback (right translated top) I have been expecting for the past 2-3 weeks and was warning you to be careful.
ReplyDeleteDo you mean 2-3 weeks of correction for 20 week cycle low?
ReplyDeleteNo. The 40 week cycle is at "mid cycle" and turning down and much of the down side could be in May. Stock cycles are rarely perfectly symmetrical (if they were all our trades would be winners).
ReplyDeleteThank you for your analysis, they are nearly spot on. Can you please tell when will be the right translated cycle of 40 week cycle which means it will accelerate lower at that point?
ReplyDeleteI would if I could predict the timing of a top exactly, but that is the place where there is most likely to be some guessing in my analysis.
ReplyDeleteI generally can give you an approximate topping region. the 40 week cycle is 9 months so the mid point is 4 1/2 months, from Dec 24th bottom to mid May is 20 weeks or mid point of the 40 week cycle. So we may be topping at the mid point (no right translation), which means I may have been wrong about right translation.
As I said - guessing enters the analysis as we near a top.