Dec 31, 2018 weekly outlook

Week ended definitely appears to have made a bottom.  If so. the next  minor bottom  should  be in early February (5 week cycle bottom). Then 5 and 10 week cycles  bottom mid March.  Opinion subject to change if data dictates:



Have a profitable 2019

2019 outlook (siderograph)

FWIW see URL for details

circle cycles for 2019:

GL 2019

Dec 24, 2018 weekly outlook

Appears we have made an ICL (Intermediate Cycle Low).  I shifted the cycles to more closely match the data (as I interpret it.).  Also RSI broke below "over sold" level.

Enjoy the holidays!!

weekly outlook Dec 17, 2018

10 week cycle seems to be controlling the trend of the market (in down half of cycle).  SANTA CLAUSE rally seems questionable.  Maybe we get a NEW YEAR rally??

GL traders

Weekly outlook Dec 10 2018

The expected "W" pattern completed Monday and then the market fell the remainder of the week.   For the year (so far) the market fell into negative territory for 2018.  Needs to fall a bit more to break the February low.

I believe new lows are likely as the 10 week cycle seems to be strong and if we are to  get a Santa Claus rally it needs to start soon.

GL Traders

 

Dec03spx2018

The "W" pattern I have anticipated is almost completed,  The  40 week (9 month) and 20 week (4 1/2 month ) cycles are up.  The 10 week cycle is topping and turning down.  Will the 10 week cycle be strong enough to not only counter the long cycles, but also set new lows?

GL traders

Nov 25, 2018 weekly outlook

Appears one up  leg to form a "W"  pattern (slight) dip first?)

Good luck traders

weekly outlook nov 19, 2018

I expect some decline first part of the week and a turn up by end of week if we see a "W" that appears to be forming.

Good luck traders.

Nov 2018 outlook

expecting sell off to indicate possible "W" formation by late Nov or early  Dec???
Other outcomes might test  the February lows.  Potential Elliott Wave formation possibly now into a down phase.

     GL traders

Oct 29, weekly outlook

Market goes up one day, down the next or up in the morning  and down in the afternoon...…  You get the picture.

Sine waves do UP and DOWN better  than circles.
Good luck traders  -  you may need it.

Week of Oct 22 outlook

Could we see new highs?  Maybe, but put your rally cap on and prepare to raise some cash as the market is likely to rally and then pull back.  Time to change strategy and sell the rallies and be very careful if/when buying the dips.  Cycles are starting to sync  to the up side.

GL traders

Weekly outlook - Oct 15, 2018

Should see some recovery as shorter cycles sync to the upside.  Reminds me of Oct 2008 as we had moves of  up/down during the day of more than 1%  (both up and down the same day).

GL traders

weekly outlook for oct 8, 2018

5 week cycle bottoms mid week, and then by late week 5, 10, 20 week cycles synced  to move up.

Lot  of  "crap" comments.  Do I need to block comments?  I will if all these comments promoting FOREX continues.

You want to support FOREX start your own blog.

Good luck traders

Update  10/11/2018

looking at yesterday's action.  Appears 5 week, 2.5 week, 1.25 week short cycles bottomed together (happens every 5 weeks (making 5 week cycle to appear dominant).

Month Oct 2018 outlook

Short term - into mid month the 5 week cycle should bottom around Oct 13.  As the 5 week cycle bottoms the 10 week cycle should top - making any pull back moderate.   The final 2 weeks of October the  20 week cycle and 5 week cycle are up as the 10 week cycle pulls back from the mid month top. 

weekly outlook Sept 24, 2008

I stated last week that the week probably be an up week.  That proved to be the case.  This week the 5 week cycle has topped and will be  down by week end.  The 10 and 20 week cycles are up.  So I expect the week to be up, but less than the past week.

Take a look:

 

 

GOOD LUCK TRADERS

weekly outlook Sept 17, 2018

Any student of cycles understands that cycles do not always fit the assumed  length.   If it is a long cycle of several months a variation of  length (short or long) may be of small consequence.  Whereas one or two days may be significant for a short cycle.  As a result it may be necessary to adjust bottom pivot points so charts more closely match past movement....

For short cycles medium length cycles provide the  frame for shorter cycles  (20 weeks divides in to two 10 week cycles and 4 five week cycles.  So changing the bottom pivots of the 20 week cycle  changes pivots of the 10 week and 5 week cycles.  To sum it up:  without expensive tools these changes are made using the ole "eyeball".  And the "eyeball" is imperfect.

Two longer cycles (10 and 20 weeks) are up.  5 week cycle tops mid week.  probably up week  (could be sideways).

 

GL traders.

Sept 10, 2018 weekly outlook

 

Venezuela   is a basket case.  South Africa in a recession.   Turkey and Argentina in bad shape.  Sanctions on Iran, NOKO and Russia..  Brazil starting to look weak.  I told you possible weakness by mid September  and I may have been too conservative.  Indonesia has currency issues.  EM contagion is spreading.

UPDATE Bitcoin chart:

GL Traders

sep 2018 outlook

Will move up continue?

.
Longer cycle up, 2 shorter cycles up. Almost time for a pause by mid September

Sine chart same information as circle chart.  Just a matter of preference:

GL traders

August update - aug 27

2 cycles ready to turn down, but longer cycle up still.  see for your self :

Good luck traders

RSI indicator warning of top and turn down soon  (over 60)

August update (aug 20, 2018)

My last update I suggested that August would see an "up" move by the market.   The market may  stall last week and half of August.  Here is a view:

 

GL traders

August 2018 outlook

For swing trading focus on shorter cycles  of 5 weeks or less.   If you focus on 3-5 stocks with different cycle periods  you may get 3-5 trades per month.   Like this example with 5 week cycles:

Appears market should advance thru mid August and pull bac last half of August.

For day trading you will want short cycle periods of say 8 Hours +/-2 hours.  Like this example:

GL traders

weekly outlook July 30, 2018

I try to show you different ways to analyze  cycle movement.  RSI can be useful in locating price highs or lows.  High RSI (70ish) can indicate a sell zone  (price getting extended) or a low RSI (30ish) can indicate a buy zone.  NOTE: these are indicators and not ABSOLUTES.

 

GL traders

July 23, 2018 - weekly outlook

5 week cycle down and should bottom late July or early August.

RSI near 70 topping (negative)

GL traders

July 19. 2018 - GOLD -- looking for a bottom

Gold trading bottom?  Metals making lows...…

July 16, 2018 weekly outlook.

 

Probably will see indexes at new highs during the week.

 10 week cycle nearing mid cycle  high (which should lessen upside momentum). Week just ended  at or near highs.

Week of July 9, 2018 outlook

As I said   last week: May be a volatile week, with week ending positive push. 

The coming week should show some upside into mid week.

GL traders

Monday showed upside.....
Tuesday showed upside (R2K didn't)….

Requested "bitcoin" chart:

weekly outlook July 2, 2018

Short cycle bottoms before week end?  Longer cycles gaining some upside momentum. End of month, end of quarter.... May be a volatile week with week ending positive push.

 

 

Happy 4th traders

June 25, 2018 weekly outlook

Longer circles are advancing.  5 week circle down. Prior week struggled for a gain -  the  small cap indexes out performed.  The DOW did poorly for the week.

 

Close call (up or down) for the week...…

GL traders

Update - short cycle in control - should turn up soon?

Week end update - gapped down Monday, side ways couple of days and finished week on up move.  Not a lot of change SnP 500 for the week as short cycle continues to offset longer cycles.

  Call for week close to actual movement for week.

Weekly outlook week of June 18, 2018

Week just ended was much as expected (sideways).  Still a gap  to be filled?  Shorter cycle (5 week)  topping.  Other cycles shown going up.    Triangle still present.  Should see some advance, but may be a struggle.....

GL traders

weekly outlook June 11, 2018

I told you last week to expect an upside move for the week.  That is what we saw.  Circle cycles  moving up...……

The cycles continue up  for this week but we have a gap up that needs to be filled by a pull back.  Also there is an up sloping triangle and this often precedes a pull back.  The week should be up, but the week is less clear than the week just ended.  Side ways is possible.

Good luck traders

June 4, 2018 weekly outlook

The first 5 months of  2018  ended with the DOW and SnP500 indexes flat.  The Russell 2000 fared better.  Appears multiple cycles bottomed this past week.  So June should fare better with the fist full week of June being up.

Bonus chart - remainder of 2018 -

GL traders

May 28, 2018 weekly outlook

Nested envelopes indicate top formed ....  Sell?

Meta Sine wave turned down and should bottom within 5-6 trading days.  Past week with short cycle down and longer cycles up gave a sideways move.  The week was sideways.  So far 2018 has been sideways.

 

May 14, 2018 weekly outlook

 

 

Hurst cycles

Shorter cycles  keep whipsawing up and down. Expect a short term top during the last half of the week.

 

Nested envelopes for cycles

Most of my posts use semi-circles to show cycles.  On April 1 I showed you the use of  "sine" waves as an alternative way to show cycles. 

Bit, there are other ways to visualize cycles.  Lots of people like Moving Averages (MAs) to analyze price movement.  We can use envelopes (based off MA offset above and below MA).  Time shifting 1/2 the  cycle span  centers the envelope.  To extract maximum information we nest cycle envelopes.

Here is an example - Russell 2000 Index:

Note  difference in MA lengths  (20 and 40 days), time shifted (10 and 20 days)  (2.5 and 3 deviations from MAs which are not shown)

Good Luck traders

weekly outlook april 30, 2018

Potential bottom by May 1.

GL traders