Saturday, December 22, 2012

Outlook for 2013

Well the Mayan end of the world came and we are still here.  So I guess it is OK to think there may be a 2013.  The cycle experts are calling for the bottoming of very long term cycles in the 2013-2015 time frame.  I have talked about these cycles in the past, but since I focus on more tradable (shorter) cycles I do not spend a lot of time on them. 

These shorter cycles account for movement within the longer term trends.  As any student of the market can tell you the S&P will move 200 points (usually) to go up or down 100 points as a result of these shorter term cycles. 

Just a reminder though -   the uptrend we have been in since the bottom in March 2009 is almost 4 years old and that is mature for an uptrend so we may be due a longer trend reversal to the downside.  If our government (president and congress) don't get their act together that reversal could be closer than many think.

But I digress - there are lots of blogs that cover fundamental and political happenings.  The cycles seem to be saying it could be mid January before we get any type of deal in Washington.  We will have several cycles bottoming in the mid January time frame (see charts prior post). 

I believe if we get the expected selloff in early January then we may set the trend for the year.  Old market axiom - as goes the first week of January - so goes January.  As goes January so goes the year.  That does not mean that there will not be times you will want to be long, just more cautious than usual.

So I believe we set a bottom in January, reverse and set a top in mid April, pull back into early June. Move up into mid August.  Then the market moves down the rest of the year with an attempt to rally in September/October.

Here is a visual:
GL, Merry CliffMess and Happy New Year.

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