The cycles should give us a bottom by the middle of the second week of December (December 12??). Depending on the news any down move could be substantial. So I would use trailing stops for any long positions to try and limit losses on any pullback. By mid December we should see a move up into January.
Here is a visual of the longer cycles:
If the downside (see DPO) of these longer cycles is realized we could see a pullback of 200 or more S&P points. With the foolishness going on in Washington - anything is possible.
Here is the shorter cycles:
GL, traders. Cash out inverses over the next 5-7 trading days and go long is my basic strategy for the month of December.
did US make a Kitchin triangle-low i 2011-2012?
ReplyDeleteA Kitchin cycle is about 41-42 months normally. The last cycle low was March 2009. Forty two months is 3.5 years. March 2009 plus 3 years is March 2012 plus half a year is Sept 2012. David Knox Barker (expert on Wall/Kitchin cycles) says FED intervention will elongate the cycle. My assumption was 45 months with each 1/3 Kitchin being 15 months. If I am wrong and the kitchin is 48 months then we see a bottom in March 2014.
ReplyDeletehave you noticed that the Kitchin cycle works better for highs than lows, which is an unusual cycle-behaviour...
ReplyDeleteWe need to be careful in makng those types of assumptions. March 2009 was a very significant bottom. Sometimes though the extent of a move up or down suprises. There may be other cycles offsetting a move that has not been considered.
ReplyDeletewe are making some kind of top this winter. A 18-24 month oscillation should top here, most often followed by a 50/200MA death cross. It is now some 235 days with 50MA above 200MA in DOW. And Nasdaq is making a cross very soon (helped by Apple weakness). So the main indexes should make the cross either now soon, or a bit later this winter.
ReplyDeleteCould just be the 18-24month top, or also a prolonged Kitchin top...(if 2011 wasnt the low) :)