11-17-2011 outlook

I mentioned to you again last evening I felt that the 22TD cycle was again becoming dominant and may have  prevented the down side one would expect with most or all the other swing cycles down.  Well, by around 2PM today the 22TD cycle should have topped and turned down.  I can't be 100% sure, but it appears the 22TD cycle demonstrated just how dominant it may be in the last hour of trading.

Looking at the cycles tomorrow and adding up the DPOs one would expect a flat day.  There are two items that say otherwise.  First the 34TD cycle has a lot of unspent downside potential (40-50 points) that may show up as it pushes hard toward a bottom by Monday.  Second, if the 22TD cycle is dominant as it appears it might be then our DPO estimates for it will be low.  So I conclude we could have a flat day, but expect some (maybe more than some) downside. 

Here is the SPX swing cycles (my interpretation):

GL traders, do your own analysis.