Monday, November 14, 2011

11-14-2011 outlook

Friday advanced, we expected at least a modest pull back.  With the alignment of the cycles now today should be down (and could be down substantially). 

I updated  the cycle amplitudes (DPO) so as to incorporate last week's data.  Here is the charts:

All the swing cycles except the 22TD cycle are down.  The amplitude of these cycles less the 22TD cycle is about 40 points.  A move of this magnitude would put SPX in line with the average for the 34TD cycle over the past 11 days (1225 or so).  Here is the SPX swing cycles (my interpretation):

Gl traders.  Do your own analysis.
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7 comments:

  1. shadow7November 14, 2011 at 5:31 AM

    Looking at the 22.5TD DPO - how do you know where the start and end is? At first glance I wanted to call Nov. 1st the bottom? Just because of the amplitude?

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  2. shadow7November 14, 2011 at 5:35 AM

    .....further from first glance the October 4th would have been a bottom of the 22.5TD along with Nov. 1st?

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  3. DoctraderNovember 14, 2011 at 6:49 AM

    Inlet,

    Your "1225" matches something that the Keystone Speculator wrote today. Keystone believes SPX is forming a Symmetrical Triangle. At some point, SPX will break out of the triangle. Keystone believes that it is possible for SPX to sell off to the "1225 range". This could then trigger a large move up to perhaps as high as 1335.

    Since end of the year rallies are common, I am hoping that we do sell off like your cycles imply, and thus perhaps set up the rally.

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  4. tomterrificNovember 14, 2011 at 1:50 PM

    Would like your thoughts on this. See http://www.safehaven.com/article/23292/dollar-teetering-on-the-abyss.

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  5. InletNovember 14, 2011 at 6:09 PM

    Shadow7 - I believe you are on the right path (as I interpret it)..

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  6. InletNovember 14, 2011 at 6:12 PM

    Doc Trader - no promises, but I believe we have one more shot tomorrow at a sizable pullback (today was OK, just didn't get the job done IMO).

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  7. InletNovember 14, 2011 at 6:21 PM

    Tom - that is the agrument - inflation or deflation. The Fed has been fighting what they feared would be deflation. Have they whipped deflation?

    My best guess is they haven't. The world econimic system will be reset and rebooted. That will cause a lot of pain to all involved. Those who are in debt over their heads will get a clean start (no debt, no possessions). Those who loaned to them will get back property worth a lot less than the loan value. So values will be destroyed on possessions and that will result in deflation.

    Pick your poison....

    ReplyDelete

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