Today was up more than projected. There are two things critical in making projections:
- Placement of the cycles
- Amplitude assigned to each of the cycles in the mix.
It appears the 5.6TD cycle bottomed 3 hours or so earlier than I had projected on my charts. The 11.2TD cycle topped around the same time. Since the 5.6D cycle has a larger daily amplitude and a shorter turning radius it seems to have had more of an impact. I wish I had a more precise method of determining swing cycle placement. At this time I don't, but will continue to look for a better method. If you have suggestions on this topic I would like to hear them.
So we have the 34TD cycle, 11.2TD cycle, and 2.8TD cycle down. Their combined amplitude is about 31.25 points (down). The 22TD cycle and 5.6TD cycle are up for a combined amplitude of about 30 points. So the total amplitude is slightly negative for tomorrow (-1.25 pts). I expect about 1-3 days of topping action here. Keep 'em guessing.
Here is the SPX swing cycles (my interpretation):
GL traders. Do your own analysis.
Inlet,
ReplyDeleteI sent you a tweet with a cycle chart that was posted on another blog... wondering what you think of his interpretation. thx
c_k - nice looking chart. Does the other site discuss why he chose the cycle lengths for his chart - would be interested in that.
ReplyDeleteInlet,
ReplyDeleteI applaud your efforts and will gladly chime in with an idea when I have one. However, what you are trying to do, ie., predict the movement of the market and the degree of those movements has always been felt to be impossible. I have read various Investment/TA books fpr perhaps 30 years now, and those books will state there is simple no system that can accurately predict daily market movements. Investing/trading today seems even harder, with the control that MSM news, HFT/Robot trading, and Central Banking manipultation have.
What I find particularly annoying is that many times, large market moves occur in the pre-market or after-market--just like today.
Overall, I think what you are doing is great and I find your cycle analysis very helpful.
Phil Davis is bearish today--although the DOW did not hit 12200, apparently it got close enough for Phil.
I am on the sidelines for now.
Doc trader
ReplyDeleteOf course you are right, but you can't blame a guy for trying. (:>)