Monday, September 12, 2011
Latest articles by Barker and Droke
Barker:
"Investors tracking large cycle turns and traders tracking small cycle turns to buy or sell can apply the MCD approach of price, time and sentiment to any global market or security. Tracking the market cycles in price, time and sentiment as an investor or trader can increase your odds of beating the averages,"
http://www.safehaven.com/article/22484/debunking-the-myth-of-the-efficient-markets-hypothesis
Droke:
"The most pertinent observation for the intermediate-term outlook concerns the 6-year cycle, which is scheduled to peak in approximately three weeks. Although the 6-year cycle is primarily an equity market cycle it also has a residual impact on the gold price. With the long-term economic cycles, including the 60-year and 120-year Kress cycles - in their final "hard down" declining phase through late 2014, gold should benefit from the economic bear market expected to worsen between now and the 120-year cycle bottom in 2014."
http://www.safehaven.com/article/22495/in-a-year-of-massive-change-golds-status-remains-unchanged
Enjoy the reads.
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Hi Inlet,
ReplyDeleteI'm from Kli's blog, but have followed your cycle analysis for a while now. Your blog is very informative. I follow Clif Droke, and receive is updates 3 time per week as well. My question to you is, how low do you see the market going after this final 6 year push? Are we talking a collapse or more of a controlled 15 to 20% decline?
Ryan - I'd say if you get updates 3 times per week maybe I should be asking you. Droke as you know is a follower of Kress. I try to be open minded to others like Barker or those who follow JM Hurst (Jim Curry).
ReplyDeleteSome claim that most of the downside of a longer cycle is achieved during something like the last 15% of the down leg. In the case of a 6 year cycle the downleg would be 3 years. 15% of 3 year is .45 year or about 6 months. If this is the case with the 6 year cycle I would not expect a sudden collapse of the market (even though one gets the impression Droke expects a more pronounced effect early on).
To me a topping is a process not a single point in time. For a longer cycle the radius of that turn is much longer than the radius of a short cycle. So I would expect the 6 year cycle to take some time to turn (at least a couple of months).
My advice would be is to let the market tell you. Be aware of the possibility of a sudden turn and if the market confirms then you are armed with the knowledge of the likely cause and can profit (we hope) from that knowledge.
Hope my comments help.
Thank you. I will try to post here when I actually have something positive to contribute. I'm a newbie who likes to "play"in this market. It's become a hobby. I play with a very small portfolio but I like trying to piece the puzzle together. I' have a small position in SOL right now. I like finding beaten down stocks and then swing trade with them. One I'm watching closely is IO, I've done well with it over the past few months. Thanks for your efforts here.
ReplyDeletePS I subscribed to Drokes market analysis for the year. I receive updates on Mon Wed and Fri. I think it cost around $160 for the year. I find it to be well worth it. Will look into Jim Curry.
Hello inlet hope all is well and hope that your efforts are enjoyed by all gl
ReplyDeleteThanks Kli, hope every decision you make in life is the right decision for you.
ReplyDeleteSo many had become too dependent on you, Joe and your blog to make decisions. I hope you gave them the background they need to stand on their own and do well.
Ryan, I am not an advocate of any one cycle analyst, but feel they all offer information to be considered. I like Barker and find his arguments regarding the 40-42 month Kitchen cycle (the business inventory cycle) compelling. In the end - you need to evaluate what each has to say and try to sort out the differences.
ReplyDeleteBTW - the 20 week (Wall) cycle should top around mid Oct and may make it appear the 6 year cycle is having more impact than it is in reality because it is the impact of a shorter cycle. See Barker's work,
These are the things you need to sort through and decide....
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