Thursday, September 22, 2011

09-23 buy the dip or not?

We always have to answer this question don't we?  Longer term I am fairly negative, but we are looking for a swing trade - not a long term relationship.  So I look at the cycles (and other TA indicators) for answers.

So I looked:

1) the 11.2TD cycle which appears to be dominant should bottom by mid day tomorrow (buy the cycle bottom).
2) the CCI has now moved below -100 (usually a place to buy).
3) The lower envelope line crossed (a buy signal).

The weight of the TA says tomorrow (Friday) may be the time to buy.  Here is the SPX  showing the points mentioned above:

GL traders.  If you have indicators that agree or disagree please share.
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4 comments:

  1. kliguy38September 22, 2011 at 8:40 PM

    gap n go manana

    ReplyDelete
  2. InletSeptember 22, 2011 at 8:59 PM

    Got it. Hope for a little bit of a pullback to pick up just a bit of long exposure. Unloaded RWM and QID today.

    ReplyDelete
  3. JekyllSeptember 23, 2011 at 12:39 AM

    I agree we could have some kind of pullback. In reallity I think has started overnigh. But shouldn´t be too risky to take a long now? I know a new 11.5td cycle should start, but 34 and 67-70td are looking for a botom.

    Should be possible to explain your expectations with this long. The conditios are similar to 2-4 of august, and we weren´t in a final fase of cycles.

    Thanks a lot for shareing...

    ReplyDelete
  4. InletSeptember 23, 2011 at 7:21 AM

    Jekyll - True that at some point the longer 22TD and 34TD cycle will regain dominance. Wish I could say when. Until we see data points showing that we go with what we see and remain vigilant for a change to these cycles.

    ReplyDelete

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