comments and outlook for 06-15-2011

Today I was 180 degrees off on the market action.  Happens sometimes.  That short 2.8TD cycle exhibited unexpected vigor (either that or I have misjudged the bottom timing and it happened Monday?).

I had expected a V shaped bottom to happen Wednesday.  It now looks as if we may be putting in a rounded bottom (with a low point  Monday?).  So that leaves confusion as to exactly what to expect tomorrow.  So I will go with the rounded bottom theory.  That implies down during the day and a low higher than Monday's low and some recovery by the close.

Here is a SPY chart:

GL traders.  Be sure to consider alternative outcomes.  The bear may be in hiding for now.