Comments and outlook for the week of 06-13-2011

Last weekend I told you for the past week the first target was the 1278  FIB and because of the 1 year cycle we could possible see a low 10-15 points lower.   The low today was around 1270.  So overall I believe my outlook for the week was on target.

The coming week the first downside target is around 1259.55 (FIB).  The upside target would be around 1294.62 (FIB).  The second downside target is around 1247.56 (FIB).  I believe around 1250 is a prior low and a significant MA level.  I have seen several calls for a test of 1250. Here is a FIB table:

I believe the first 3 days (Mon-Wed) will be down and at least one of those days could show a significant drop.  So I believe we will test and break the first downside target around 1259.  Based om my chart work It appears after applying the DPO for the 22TD cycle and the 20 week (Wall) cycle that the down side is the low 1250s or upper 1240s.  This does not consider the effect of the 1 year cycle which is hard down and could add 10 or more points to the downside.  So I believe it is possible that 1250 will be broken and possibly even the fib level at  1246.56 broken.   Here is my chart showing the 22TD cycle and 20 week (Wall) cycle:

As I mentioned - the first 3 days of the week should be down, but by the close Wednesday we should have multiple short cycles bottoming (22TD cycle, 11.2TD cycle, 5.6TD cycle, 2.8TD cycle).  Once these short cycles bottom Wednesday there will probably be something of a move up.  So the week should close somewhere in the middle of its range for the week (probably around 1260?).  Here is a visual of those shorter cycles that bottom Wednesday: 

Finally, reference my prior post on Spiral dates and you will note they show a low for June 15. So we get a low by Wednesday close, and then a tradable move up that should last 3-4 days (more detail as the week proceeds).

GL traders, do you own analysis.  The trend is down so going long can be risky.  The bear is loose so be on guard.