What can I say? My expectations for today were completely off base. Of course I have to sheepishly admit I did tell you in my outlook for the week the following: "My expectations for the coming week is that the 22TD cycle (and other shorter cycles will bottom mid week -
as early as Tue close, but more likely sometime Wed)." I believe that is what happened - the market bottomed Tuesday. I have stated in the past that turning points can be tricky to call exactly.
So, it is my opinion now we saw a low yesterday. I could try and make the argument that today was an aberration, but that would be ignoring the evidence. If I have learned one thing over the years - don't argue with the data in front of you - you will lose the argument. Besides I am trying to interpret the data not dictate market movement.
Fortunately, I had anticipated this and had a chart all prepared (just had to plug in today's data):
I will try and expand the chart to better show some future dates and post it later. GL traders. Today was a perfect example of why you should consider using stops. Do your own analysis
Update 06:37 EDT - It appears tomorrow should be up. May get some pullback toward the end of the day. Here is an expanded chart:
The WALL Cycle should top with this 22TD top around June 1-3 correct?
ReplyDeleteThe Wall cycle may top a little before that, but yes that sounds about right. As you know the market is a fluid situation and we may need to tweak projections if the data suggests it.
ReplyDeleteSo basically there's not much to hold the market up after June get's here?
ReplyDeleteShadow - I believe that is generally true. We need to carefully monitor market action with this possibility in mind.
ReplyDeleteThe other factor I will be watching is the last 5 or so weeks of the 1 year cycle into early July. If you look at history it is usual for a downside move from mid-May to early June into early July due to this 1 year cycle bottoming in early July.
Question regarding the 22TD cycle: Do all the sub divisions of the cycle always stay nested inside the 22TD? Can they get out of sync? Hope I'm saying that in a way that conveys my thoughts. Thanks, Best
ReplyDeleteCycles don't have to nest, but more often than not they do. For example - I don't believe the 1 year cycle is nested, but it may contain 6 month and/or 3 month cycles nested within it...
ReplyDeleteEven the long cycles nest. The 120 year Grand Super cycle contains 2 x 60 year K-waves. A K-wave contains 2 x 30 year Super cycles. A 30 year Super cycle contains 3 X 10 year cycles.
Frequently when you have a 22TD cycle you will also have a 45TD cycle... A Wall cycle is 20 weeks and 9 Wall cycles are contained in a Kitchin cycle. There are 17 Kitchin cycles in a K-Wave.....
I believe I have talked about this nesting extensively in prior posts.