comments and outlook for 05-02-2011

The market appears to be slowing down in its upside push.  Yeah, Friday  closed green, but given the huge beat by CAT it is surprising that the DOW did now roar to the upside,  Good news seems to be having less of an impact.  This is the type of action one expects as a cycle top approaches,

The 22TD cycle may top on Monday (but more likely that will happen on Tuesday).  The cycles are mixed - some up and some down.  The 22TD as mentioned is still up but will top soon. The 11.2TD cycle and the 5.6TD cycle are down.  The 2.8TD cycle is down.   So there is about a 50-50 chance of closing green (same for red).  I expect a rather slow day with a limited range on Monday.  My guess would be some upside early fading toward the end of the day.

Here is a visual:

GL traders, do your own analysis.