August 2015 outlook and beyond

The first week of August should see the nested bottom of the Wall (20 weeks, 4.5 months) cycle, 10 week, 5 week, and 2.5 week cycles.  The next 20 week cycle bottom of nested bottoms will be late December.  But unlike the bottom forming now this next bottom will have 2 longer cycles also bottoming (Kitchin cycle - 3.5 years and 1/3 Kitchin cycle - 13.5 months) and expect a more substantial move down.

It is likely this will limit the upside of the 4 cycles (Wall, 10 week. 5 week. 2.5 week ) we look at for swing trading will have less upside effect than one normally sees.

The amplitude of up moves should give a hint as to how much downside we see by year end.

Good luck

July 27, 2015 weekly outlook

The fourth cycle (2.5 week) tops and turns down.  By the final day of July all the cycles I am plotting will be down.    By the first week of August we should see a nested bottom of these 4 cycles. Here is a visual:

GL traders

Jul 20, $gold outlook

Aroon cross suggests a buy within 2 days....  Also several cycles forming a bottom nest.

GL gold buyers

July 20, 2015 weekly outlook

Market showed unexpected strength for the week just ended!!!  The upcoming week should show some weakness as the 3 longer cycles are down and the 2.5 week cycle is up
 so the bias should be down into the first week of August.

Another way to look at short trades entry/exit:

Good luck traders

July 13, 2015 weekly outlook

With all the news out of Greece, China, NYSE down 4 hours, etc. you would have expected a down week yet the market was almost unchanged.  As I pointed out last week the 2 shorter cycles were up and had a quicker cycle move over a short time offsetting the larger amplitude of the longer cycles over a longer period.

Cycle alignment (wall and 10 week down, 2.5 week top and down) suggests a down week for the week of July 13.

GL traders

July 6, 2015 weekly outlook

With the Wall cycle and 10 week cycle down the week has some downside pressure.   Even though longer cycles have larger amplitudes it is spread over longer time frames so the per day amplitude is usually less (especially in the first half of the down leg). So with the 5  week cycle and 2.5 week cycles up probably will see some upside bias for the week, but limited move up due to down side pressure of the longer cycles.

GL traders

June 29, 2015 weekly outlook

Should see weakness first 2 days of the week with a reversal up the last 2 days of the week based on cycle alignment of 3 cycles down and 2 bottoming by end of day Tuesday and turning up as 10 week cycle tops to turn down.

GL traders, have a good holiday...

2015 the second half

A longer cycle spends only (about) 1/8th of the cycle span doing most of its downside damage...

For example the Wall Cycle does the most damage in the last 2.5 weeks of the cycle.  This is important to remember for shorter term trading.  One longer cycle I focus on is the Kitchin Cycle which is 41-42 months long (about 3.5 years - half the 7 year cycle).  1/8th  of 42 is about 7 months.  This puts the bottom of the Kitchin Cycle.  You have a nesting of the 1/3 Kitchin cycle, the Wall cycle and the shorter cycles I general discuss at this time also.  This is also about 7 years from the 2009 bottom which pushes the bottom out toward the end of the first quarter 2016.

Given this alignment of cycles one should not be surprised if the second half of the year turns bearish.  I have no clue if the FED's actions will extend these cycles and move the bottom into mid 2016.  I am saying use extreme caution in your trading during the second half of 2015.  Might even consider a position in an Inverse ETF (rational amount).

GL second half 2015

June 22, 2015 weekly outlook

Appears my charts were off somewhat last week - (2-3 days).  Hopefully I have made appropriate adjustments.  This week you have 3 cycles (Wall, 5 weeks, 2.5 weeks) down and one (5 weeks) up.    With cycle alignment it may be a stronger move than recent moves. So expectations for the week are a down market for the week. 

 

GL traders

June 15, 2015 weekly outlook

The past week played out much as expected, down 2 days then up 2 days and down Friday.  Friday pullback was not predicted.

In the coming week we have the Wall cycle down, the 5 week cycle down, the 10 week cycle up and the 2.5 week topping.  I anticipate the alignment of these cycles will result in a down week with a slight upside bias possible early in the week (Monday and Tuesday).

GL traders