August 2015 outlook and beyond

The first week of August should see the nested bottom of the Wall (20 weeks, 4.5 months) cycle, 10 week, 5 week, and 2.5 week cycles.  The next 20 week cycle bottom of nested bottoms will be late December.  But unlike the bottom forming now this next bottom will have 2 longer cycles also bottoming (Kitchin cycle - 3.5 years and 1/3 Kitchin cycle - 13.5 months) and expect a more substantial move down.

It is likely this will limit the upside of the 4 cycles (Wall, 10 week. 5 week. 2.5 week ) we look at for swing trading will have less upside effect than one normally sees.

The amplitude of up moves should give a hint as to how much downside we see by year end.

Good luck

July 27, 2015 weekly outlook

The fourth cycle (2.5 week) tops and turns down.  By the final day of July all the cycles I am plotting will be down.    By the first week of August we should see a nested bottom of these 4 cycles. Here is a visual:

GL traders

Jul 20, $gold outlook

Aroon cross suggests a buy within 2 days....  Also several cycles forming a bottom nest.

GL gold buyers

July 20, 2015 weekly outlook

Market showed unexpected strength for the week just ended!!!  The upcoming week should show some weakness as the 3 longer cycles are down and the 2.5 week cycle is up
 so the bias should be down into the first week of August.

Another way to look at short trades entry/exit:

Good luck traders

July 13, 2015 weekly outlook

With all the news out of Greece, China, NYSE down 4 hours, etc. you would have expected a down week yet the market was almost unchanged.  As I pointed out last week the 2 shorter cycles were up and had a quicker cycle move over a short time offsetting the larger amplitude of the longer cycles over a longer period.

Cycle alignment (wall and 10 week down, 2.5 week top and down) suggests a down week for the week of July 13.

GL traders

July 6, 2015 weekly outlook

With the Wall cycle and 10 week cycle down the week has some downside pressure.   Even though longer cycles have larger amplitudes it is spread over longer time frames so the per day amplitude is usually less (especially in the first half of the down leg). So with the 5  week cycle and 2.5 week cycles up probably will see some upside bias for the week, but limited move up due to down side pressure of the longer cycles.

GL traders