I was asked if I had a central repositary for my charts etc. Short answer is I do not and what I have on my PCis not organized. This blog comes as close as anything to being a central reference. I just got a new PC and did not copy all files from the past couple of years.
I am flattered that it was suggested people would pay for a book (If I had one - which I don't) covering my analysis. There are lots of books out there on cycles. David Knox Barker (long term cycles - Kitchin/Wall Cycle expert) has a couple of books. Google him and read some of his articles to decide if his work would interest you. Barker also has a paid advisory nservice. Jim Curry is a fan of JM Hurst and his work on cycles. Google him and read some of his articles. He also has a paid advisory service.... Then there is Cliff Droke (fan of Bud Kress and his work). Google him. He has a couple of books and offers a paid advisory service.
Of course there is Charles Nenner and a host of others out there willing to take your money. I am not one of them. I do this blog because of many years of investing in the market (some times I did well, other times not so well) and extensive reading about different technical approaches to investing/trading in the market. I am not a writer (Have a BS in math not journalism) so writing a book would be a challenge. Having a for profit advisory service would be too much like having a job (defeat the purpose of retirement of not having regular work). LOL In short - I don't do this for monetary gain, but to share some insights that may help others. I also try to offer pieces of information that will help advance the education/understanding of others.
In summary, there are lots of people who have written books on the subject of stock market cycles (check Amazon) and I have mentioned a couple, but read reviews on Amazon to decide as I have not read all their books. Also, there are many sites offering software for Hurst Cycles (for example). Software and data feed access can be expensive. Having not subscribed to or used any of this software I cannot suggest what software may be worth the money,
I use the free access to a couple of charting services and do my charts manually. Primarily I use Stockcharts.com and manually annotate using the annotation service. Since I use the free service I cannot save charts on stockcharts.com.
So, you get my insights for free - and pay what they are worth. Hehehe
Your work is much appreciated. I would be interested to hear more of your insights along the lines of lessons learned. For instance, how do you adjust your techniques to reflect the current climate of QE. Thanks again for tracking Silver on our behalf.
ReplyDeleteSpiker - I guess there are many things that can influence the market(s) on a temporary basis (like Sandy for example) so one is always examining the cycles and whether they fit the data. If your assumed cycles and the data reaches a point where they are a mismatch then you question your analysis and conclusions.
ReplyDeleteThe problem that often pops up is a dominate cycle can recede in amplitude and another cycle becomes dominate. So you incorporate other tools like DPO, CCI or MFI to confirm or not your cycle analysis.
I have seen the claim that QE has lengthened cycles, but I believe that would be primarily longer cycles (say over 20 weeks). Futhermore, in doing time analysis Fibonacci ratios seem to be a common yardstick. See David Knox Barker's articles (he has a couple of good articles on this subject).