comments and outlook 03-18

Another day where the open determined the outcome for the day.  No news during the day to move the market to extremes during the day.  This "guess the open" pattern is getting tedious.  Still, I got the hoped for pop and bought some inverses (1/3 position - saving powder in case we pop again tomorrow). If you discount the open the pattern during th day was much as expected based on the cycles.

So will we get news over night that affects the open.  It is possible considering there are events in the Mid East an Japan that could break during the night.  And let's not totally forget the PIIGS and Europe.  As I post the UN is voting on action/inaction in regards to Libya.   Sounds like a resolution was adopted to take action against Libya.   Nothing will happen for some time on this - so it is probably not a factor.  There is also supposed to be a Group of Seven conference (call) regarding Japan and the Yen and whether to take coordinated action.  This could be a factor tomorrow.

All I can do is show you how the cycles should play out.  You are on your own in evalaluating these external factors and how they will affect the open.  Tomorrow we have the 11+day cycle topping as the 5.5+ day cycle bottoms around midday.  I would think these 2 cycles offset throughout the day.    The 30 day cycle is up and so is the 2.8 day cycle.  So this should provide support for the market and we possibly will see some advance in the market tomorrow (after any news is absorbed at the open).

Here is the cycle view for tomorrow:

GL traders.  Do your own analysis.  Do not over commit to a position and be ready to reverse field if news goes against you.