I believe Wednesday may well have been a transitional day. I have reviewed charts and see no reason to change my outlook for the next 2 days. While it is true we may have a couple of shorter cycles turning up the longer of the shorter cycles are down. Now a couple of these cycles should make a fairly strong push down as they bottom. So I expect in the next 2 days we could/will trade in the bottom part of the range of 1295-1335.
I have tried to include all relevant cycles on tonight's chart. See for yourself:
06:35 AM EST update - Asia markets and European markets were/are down. The futures are well below Fair Value. I suppose job numbers could change this, but right now it looks to be a very "red" open.
10:42 am EST - Those longer of the short cycles are pushing down hard to a bottom (as I thought they might). Looks like the lower range may not hold.
ReplyDeleteinteresting in how are you calculating cycles? I follow the Ttheory site...
ReplyDeletegood call on today btw..
that should have been..
ReplyDeleteI am interested in how you are calcuating/determining your cycles...
Terry seems to think there is a 14/15 week cycle since the 2008 low.
thanks
Marc - There are several factors I use that go into determining how to figure cycle lengths. I do look at Ttheory and Terry's work. I find MFI and projections using MFI useful in detecting cycle pivot points.
ReplyDeleteVery often individual stock cycles will differ from an Index's cycle, so using the cycles of an index may or may not be helpful in evaluating an individual stock cycle.
I consider the work of Gann regarding cycle lengths. Gann had a fascination with circles (360 degrees) and factors of circles (90 degrees). He used eights to project cycle lengths (1/8 of 90 = 11.25, 1/4 of 90 = 22.50, etc). I find often there are shorter cycles that approximate these lengths. 90 days is 13 weeks and approximates Terry's 14-15 weeks. Or if you take 90 + 1/8 x 90 you have Terry's 15 weeks.
On shorter cycles I use factors of 11.25 days (5.75 days is 1/2 of 11.25 and 2.8 is 1/4 of 11.25).
Now this gives you a starting point in looking for cycles. Never underestimate the power of the "eyeball" either. lol.
I also use as I mentioned MFI projections. Another technique to highlight cycles is MA envelopes. See JM Hurst's work on cycles.
This is by no means a complete explanation, but I have posted several discussions on this subject that you may want to review.
Marc -
ReplyDeleteNote I focus a lot more on shorter cycles than Terry does with the swing trader audience in mind. About once a month I will review the status of longer cycles to set the bigger picture.
Inlet